The line of Actual Control is really a China-dictated notion. The two lACs in the region are widely believed to represent where Chinese troops advanced first in 1960, and later, the line to which they withdrew post-1962
It is the 16th day with no signs that the 19-km deep Chinese intrusion into the Debsang Plateau of Eastern ladakh will be vacated anytime soon. This is the first time that the Chinese have penetrated in the Daulat Beg Oldi sector, just 30 km away from the refurbished advanced landing ground and established a tented camp which is stocked to support the incursion force for a couple of months. Couched in smart words, Minister for External Affairs Salman Khurshid said the Chinese are where “we don’t want them to be, but we don’t have to lose sleep over it.” Union Minister for Defence AK Antony mumbled something that was deciphered as: “We are taking all necessary precautions.” A full two weeks after the event, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh joined in: “We do not want to accentuate the situation…we do believe that it is possible to resolve this localised problem”, and added, “I think talks are going on”.
If after 14 days the Prime Minister of India ‘thinks’ talks are going on and that he has a plan, so be it. Because the rest of India is quite confused and amazed at the brazenness of Chinese behaviour. Union Minister for Home Affairs Sushil Kumar Shinde became an accomplice to Chinese claims when he said the area was ‘no man’s land’. But what took the cake was Mr Khurshid’s comparison of the intrusion to an acne — apply an ointment and it will disappear. Both inside and outside Parliament, the principal Opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and the Samajwadi Party have been urging Mr Khurshid to call off his ill-timed trip to Beijing on May 9 to work out the details for new Chinese Premier li Keqiang’s subsequent visit to India unless the People’s liberation Army withdrew by then.
By all accounts, the joint mechanism for boundary issues, the latest CBM, has still not been activated. Joint Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, Gautam Bambawale is likely to travel to Beijing to try and kick-start the joint mechanism. As in the past, it is invariably India and its leaders that are reacting to the Chinese misdemeanour in the face of countless CBMs and tranquility treaties, which in the main, are China-dictated.
On the Chinese side, spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry Hua Chunying has been doing the talking — from ‘China has not crossed lAC’ to ‘India and China had the capacity and wisdom to defuse the stand-off’ to ‘the email acknowledging Prime Minister Singh’s statement’, and it is rounded off with 200 words of inanities. The Chinese have created a situation which they say they are willing to help resolve, but on their terms. Before this transgression is vacated the new Chinese leadership will have tested to what extent India can be pushed.
The only time India stood its ground was in 1986 when the Chinese had occupied by stealth, the post at Wangdung in Arunachal Pradesh. They were promptly surrounded from three sides and kept locked till both sides vacated their position in 1995. Considerable military, political, psychological and moral gains accrued to India from its willingness to stand up to Chinese intrusion. A Wangdung cannot be replicated on the Depsang plateau which has a harsh climate and no physical access to the area except through the Advance landing Ground at DBO. The basic infrastructure support is non-existent in this sector. The Chip-Chap valley is more easily accessible to the Chinese.
ladakh is geo-strategically an important crossroad linking Central Asia and East Asia. It has the highest grade of natural uranium deposits in India, a rich geo-thermal belt capable of producing thousands of megawatts of electricity and other strategic mineral resources. An astronomical laboratory of strategic value is also located in the region. The Depsang plateau is the only launchpad for offensive operations against China to interdicting the Aksai Chin road and the East-West Highway in Xinjiang region.
For China, which already occupies 36,000 sq km of 38,000 sq km of Aksai Chin, it is vital to prevent India from developing an offensive launchpad. It will creep closer to the AlG at DBO because that would eventually help to establish a contiguous zone linking Shaksgam with the Northern Areas and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir via the Kunjerab Pass. China has invested $20 billion in developing highways, dams, and a rail network to Gwadar port whose operational management it recently took over. Beijing wants to eliminate the Indian shadow over its activities along the Karakoram highway.
The Chinese have hived off the 2000-km of the western boundary in J&K, leaving the India-China boundary to just a little over 2000 km. In their official records, J&K is shown as an independent country. The design is clear — to nibble away territory in collusion with Pakistan.
The Chinese are demanding the dismantling of new structures and a freeze in infrastructure development in this area. The idea is to further widen the capability gap in their favour by invoking the non-construction of military assets in disputed areas. The lAC is a China-dictated notion. The two lACs in the region are widely believed to represent where Chinese troops advanced first on November 9, 1960, in a show of force, and later, the line to which they withdrew after the 1962 war. Under this framework, when the Chinese have not indicated their accepted lAC, they will never cross it.
The most effective claim to territory is through occupation. One other reason the Chinese are physically advancing claims in ladakh (Western sector) is the realisation that India will be unable and unwilling to make concessions in Tawang (Eastern sector). So, they may also be preparing ground for securing concessions in ladakh.
last month in China, members of think-tanks were saying that the border issue is very difficult to resolve for three reasons: No strong leadership to make compromises; public opinion against concessions; and, differences in perception of parameters and guiding principles for the three stages of border resolution which has run aground. But everything is to India’s advantage, they said. “You are in possession of land you claim”.
This is not true, and is no different from the ‘acne ointment treatment’ Mr Khurshid has prescribed; it is make-believe. The Chinese are there in Depsang for the long haul. While Mr Antony said in 2008 that India has a lot of catching up to do with China, that task seems a bridge too far. With the Chinese raising new conditions for infrastructure development, the border dispute is going to get messier.