Congress latches on to don’s support in Varanasi
In a last-minute bid to shore up its prospects by mopping up the Muslims votes in Varanasi, the Congress has managed to get Quami Ekta Dal chief and muscleman Mukhtar Ansari to back its candidate Ajay Rai against Mr Narendra Modi. Mr Ansari had lost by a margin of around 17,000 votes to the Bharatiya Janata Party's candidate Murli Manohar Joshi in the 2009 lok Sabha election from this constituency on a Bahujan Samaj Party ticket. It is said that because he commands widespread support of the Muslim community in the region, his support to the Congress candidate could polarise the minority votes in favour of the latter. While this may be true to some extent, what also comes along as a fact is that a similar reverse polarisation will work in the BJP's favour. Mr Ansari is not exactly a beloved figure among the majority of the voters in Varanasi. If he came close to winning in 2009 it was largely because he had secured the committed votes of the BSP along with the support of the roughly three lakh Muslims. This time, however, he does not belong to the BSP and cannot, therefore, shift the party’s votes to wherever he may want to. In short, Mr Ansari will be able to bring to the table for the Congress largely the minority votes, and even that may not be in a big enough quantity to make a difference. Mr Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party too is eyeing the Muslim votes and he could well end up having a share of the pie that Mr Ansari believes is entirely his. Indeed, the AAP campaign has largely concentrated on creating a dent in the votes that the non-BJP parties have been securing from the minorities in Varanasi. In the emerging scenario, the Muslim votes could well get split to the advantage of the BJP.
Besides the arithmetic, there is the issue of credibility of the alliance which the Congress candidate will have to battle. Mr Ansari is an accused in the murder of Mr Rai's brother. For years, both Mr Rai and Mr Ansari have been at loggerheads not just politically but also personally on account of this killing. It is difficult to see how such deep-rooted enmity can translate into sudden bonhomie between them and their supporters. That Mr Ansari has extended support to the Congress candidate to prevent Mr Modi's victory is the obvious inference, and one which the former has offered. But there is another, more important calculation behind the alleged don's decision. Mr Modi's victory will effectively seal the political prospects of Mr Ansari in the constituency, whereas a victorious Mr Rai's influence can be later, easily blunted. The Quami Ekta Dal leader realises that Mr Modi will be a difficult customer to handle. Unfortunately for both Mr Ansari and Mr Rai, the ground situation is heavily tilted in favour of the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, and Mr Modi is expected to not just sail through but to do so with a more than convincing margin.
The recent development has demonstrated that the Congress realises it is a minor force in Varanasi against Mr Modi, which is why it has grabbed Mr Ansari's helping hand regardless of the latter's reputation. The party has given the old spin about teaming up with dubious elements as being driven by the larger interest of keeping communal forces at bay. But this has few takers.