Time to raise our fences and step up vigil
To Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri's recent threat that his terror group will begin operations in the Indian sub-continent, India can have one effective response: Raising its fences and strengthening its security apparatus. And this is precisely what the Union Government has done. It has taken note of the development at the highest level and issued a nationwide alert to all State Governments to step up their vigil. Jihadi hotspots in the country are being monitored and law enforcement authorities are expected to tighten the leash around known troublemakers. To gauge the nature of the threat that this proposed branch of Al Qaeda may pose to Indian interests, one must understand the group's motives behind the recent announcement. Though the jihadi network it spawned has now spread to almost every corner of the globe, Al Qaeda itself has been steadily losing ground and influence since the turn of the century. The core group was hit hard by American military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the 2011 assassination of Osama bin laden stripped Al Qaeda of its most prized asset: The godfather of global jihad. More recently, the meteoric rise of the Islamic State terror group has threatened to push Al Qaeda into oblivion. In its earlier avatar, IS was an affiliate of Al Qaeda. But Zawahiri severed ties with the group following differences with its leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi over his franchise, which was then operating only out of Iraq, expanding into Syria. The Al Qaeda chief also found Baghdadi's penchant for beheadings and mass murders distasteful but these tactics found popular appeal among the new generation of jihadis that had emerged from the cesspool of war and conflict that was the levant. By the summer of this year, the IS had dissolved the borders between Iraq and Syria, and grabbed so much territory, that it could legitimately lay claim to a caliphate. Establishing such a pan-Islamic state was also Al Qaeda's cherished goal and clearly, it wasn't going to be elbowed out of the game so easily. Hence, it has made this desperate bid to remain relevant — by announcing a new franchise.
In the near future, Al Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent can be expected to focus, not so much on launching major terror attacks, but filling up its rank and file. Here too, it will face competition from the IS which reportedly has some fan following in the region. What may work in favour of Al Qaeda, however, is that it already has some solid linkages with local jihadi groups here, such as the Indian Mujahideen and the Students Islamic Movement of India. Additionally, it also has a strong base in Pakistan. Indian authorities should, therefore, prioritise thwarting any recruitment activities of the group: Use the full force of the state to shut down Islamist propaganda both online and offline, choke all possible funding routes within and outside the country, and most importantly, beef up street-level policing and intelligence gathering activities.