Metrojet bombing brings Sinai unrest in focus
With Russia confirming that its Metrojet flight that crashed in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula on October 31 was, indeed, bombed, a new section has been added to the Islamic State handbook on terrorism. The group had taken responsibility for the attacks within hours of the airplane being downed but experts weren't convinced right away. However, subsequent investigations by Egyptian, Russian, American, British and German officials have now confirmed that the airplane was brought down by a large home-made bomb that was detonated on-board. For the Islamic State, this is a big win. Especially when viewed together with its Paris attack, the bombing is a veritable increase in its ability to strike terror in the heart of civilisation. The Islamic State had already secured its position as the world's most deadly terror group but still, it is one thing to unleash a reign of terror in a lawless, stateless region and quite another carry out a large-scale terrorist attack in a major Western capital or bomb a plane in mid-air in the post-9/11 world. That the Paris attack on November 13 is being dubbed as ‘France's 9/11' while the Metrojet bombing is in the league of the 1985 Kanishka bombing that killed 329 people or the 1988 lockerbie bombing that killed 259 people speaks volumes.
In this context, it will be interesting to see how Russia responds to the attack. The airplane, which took off from Sharm-el Sheikh for St Petersburg, was primarily carrying Russian tourists who had been vacationing in the Red Sea resort. The Islamic State has said that the attack was in response to Russia's ongoing air campaign in Syria while Russia has labeled the downing an “act of war”. It is expected that Russia will now ramp up its campaign in Syria, dovetailing with the heightened anti-terror efforts of France and the US. However, the finer details of this upgraded offensive are yet to emerge.
As far as Egypt is concerned, it will feel the impact of Metrojet attack in a different sector the economy, which is heavily dependent on tourism. Since the Arab uprising began in 2011, Egypt has struggled with security issues. President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi, who came to power last year, has sought to restore normalcy by clamping down on jihadi groups but the situation has remained fragile. There have been terror attacks throughout this year including bombings in Cairo, although major tourist spots, including the Red Sea resorts which are frequented by Western tourists, have been largely incident-free. Still, the Metrojet bombing could damage public perception. From a security perspective, the bombing brings the limelight back on to the restive Sinai Peninsula. The Sisi Government has tried hard to convince the world that it has Sinai under control but that's not quite the case. Several local jihadi groups fester in that region and, in fact, it is one such outfit, Ansar Bait al-Maqdi, which declared affiliation to the Islamic State last year, that carried out the Metrojet attack.