Congress-NCP locked in an uneasy embrace
At this moment, the Nationalist Congress Party's threat to snap ties with the Congress and go it alone in the coming Assembly election in Maharashtra appears to be more of a pressure tactic than a commitment. Having been ground to dust in the lok Sabha election despite fighting as a combine, the two parties are hardly in a position to individually take on a resurgent Shiv-Sena BJP grouping in the State. As it is, even as an alliance, the Congress-NCP is expected to fare poorly in the Assembly poll. Individually, and in confrontation with each other, the two are certain to do worse. This reality may ensure that their partnership remains, despite the deep distrust that has developed between them — with both accusing each other of the lok Sabha debacle. Sensing the vulnerable ground the Congress has come to occupy after it ended up with just 44 seats in the lok Sabha, the NCP believes it is the opportune moment to turn the screws. Senior State party leader Ajit Pawar has demanded a 50:50 seat-sharing arrangement in the 288-member House. In other words, the NCP wants to contest on 144 seats as against on the 114 it did in the 2009 election. This is a steep rise in demand which the Congress is naturally loath to concede. The Congress's objection is also based on the negative perception that will spread about the party: That it succumbed to bluff from an assertive partner. Mr Ajit Pawar believes in the maxim of striking while the iron is hot, but his belligerence may not be shared by his senior colleagues, including party chief and former Union Minister Sharad Pawar. The latter is a pragmatic politician who weighs every word he says and every action he takes. Mr Sharad Pawar too is not happy with the state of affairs between the allies and he has made it known on many occasions. There had been times during the UPA regime when he was said to have left Cabinet meetings midway in a huff. Yet, all this and more, including remarks from senior leader Praful Patel that the party had reached the end of its patience, did not disturb the NCP-Congress alliance in Maharashtra.
It is possible that Mr Ajit Pawar has demanded the maximum he could on behalf of his party so that in the subsequent negotiations the NCP can scale it down to a ‘respectable' level. What is certain is that his party is not only unlikely to settle for anything less than the number of seats it contested the last time around but that it would want substantially more, even if the figure may not add up to 144. The demand for more seats is one part of the NCP's pressure, though; it has been nibbling away at the authority of Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan to sustain its pull on the Congress. It's difficult to see how, even if they remain together, the two warring parties, so often at each other's throats, can add political value to individual benefit.