A Mexican standoff in India's Parliament

Political gambles sometimes acquire a momentum beyond initial intent. The mess in the Monsoon Session of Parliament, which ended earlier this week, is a standout example. The Congress and the BJP have walked themselves into a Mexican standoff from which there is no easy withdrawal.One could argue the Congress is more to blame. It has embarked on a maximalist, ultra-hardline position way too early in the life of the Narendra Modi Government. A strategy of permanent disruption that may have made sense at the end of the fourth year of the Government, and after a period of Congress re-building in real-world politics, outside Parliament, has been deployed at the beginning of the second year itself.

The Congress approach has been quizzical, not just to outside observers but even to some party veterans. As early as the Budget Session, when the Congress had agreed to help pass the insurance Bill for instance, there were differences between senior MPs and a younger brigade, essentially the Rahul Gandhi generation. It had led to a shouting match in full view of other, non-Congress MPs, with a former Cabinet Minister in the Manmohan Singh Government being upbraided by a younger party colleague for having conceded ground on the insurance Bill much too easily.

As such, even if the lalit Modi episode had not lent itself for use, the Congress would very likely have come up with a plan to disrupt this session. More than the resignation of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj — which would have been a political victory had it happened — the Congress was motivated by the desire to delay the Constitutional Amendment Bill for the Goods and Services Tax. This would ensure GST would not come into operation by April 1, 2016, but be delayed to April 1, 2017. Consequently, any fiscal benefit would be denied to the NDA Government till the 2017-2018 financial year, with only one year for its term to end.

The Congress’ other assessment was (and remains) that the BJP will do badly in Bihar. As such, it saw the destruction of the Monsoon Session agenda as part of the larger pre-election campaign. Of course, even if Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RJD chief lalu Prasad win Bihar, it remains unclear how this will help the Congress, except in a tangential sense. A coalescing of opposition regional parties, isolating the Congress and the left, is already underway. The Congress’ strong-arm tactics in the Rajya Sabha can’t alter that reality.

For the BJP, the unrelenting hostility of the Congress has come as a surprise. Frankly, why this has been a surprise is itself a surprise. It should have been clear from day one that the threat perception the Congress and its framework of influence feels from a Narendra Modi-led Government is qualitatively higher than would have been the case with a BJP Government led by another person. Simply, the Congress has no option but to have the man from Gujarat failing.

This is a predictable and legitimate political aspiration and the BJP should have been better prepared in terms of its parliamentary management. Yet, the Government seems to have been repeatedly taken aback as the Congress delayed the GST amendment session after session, with the BJP neither trying to use its levers to strike a deal nor exploiting its knowledge from the inside to target and isolate the Congress, and make association with it problematic for other parties. At least this would have put the Congress on the backfoot.

That the Congress is riding a tiger it doesn’t know how to get off became clear when it suddenly agreed to a debate on the Sushma Swaraj-lalit Modi episode. Why it did so on the penultimate day, when it had determinedly opposed a debate for much of the session, was not immediately comprehensible.The debate led to a walkover for the Government. 

Ms Swaraj’s speech was politically effective, even if the circumstances of her decision on former Indian Premier league chief lalit Modi remains a concern. Between her and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, they demolished the Congress’ credibility and larger legal argument that the UPA Government had sought to bring Mr lalit Modi to book. 

Stung by the ferocity of the attack, the Congress could only shout back. This made a compromise vote on GST, which would have been the logical aftermath of an angry and cathartic debate, impossible. So what happens nextIJ Actually, things may get more complicated. The GST is a constitutional amendment that requires a two-thirds majority to pass. The Congress has 68 seats in the Rajya Sabha. It requires only about a dozen more to reach the one-third mark and block a constitutional amendment, a number it can easily reach with the left and nominated members (named as MPs by the previous UPA Government). 

As such, without a deal being reached, a short session in September, as is being suggested by some, will not help. Unless there is a miracle and gentlemanly conduct is restored all round, the GST amendment will not come through in time for introduction at the beginning of the next financial year. If the amendment is now needed only sufficiently in advance of April 1, 2017, it takes us to another realisation: The deadline for the amendment has in effect moved to the summer of 2016.

This means there is no urgency for the Government to push ahead with the GST amendment in the Winter Session. It can wait for its moment in the long, two-segment Budget Session of 2016 or even, at a pinch, the Monsoon Session a year from now. There are no other major constitutional amendments on the anvil. All other Bills can be passed by the lok Sabha and the calling of (or threat of calling) a joint session. It is only with a constitutional amendment that a joint session cannot be summoned, and the Congress votes in the Rajya Sabha become critical.

Given this, there is no pressing impulse for the Government to reach out to the Congress in the Winter Session. On the other hand, following the bad blood in the Monsoon Session, there is little scope for the Congress to hurriedly become amendable either. It will only lose face and give its supporters the impression of being fickle and confused. For better or worse, it has to keep riding the tiger Mr Gandhi has put it on — irrespective of how Bihar votes.

A take-no-prisoners phase is upon us. It may not be sustainable and may impede governance and damage parliamentary decorum, at least in the short-run, but it is upon us all the same. Happy Independence Day!

(The writer is senior fellow, Observer Research Foundation. He can be reached at malikashok@gmail.com)