The upcoming Rajya Sabha by-election for the seat fell vacant with the incumbent member Manorma Dobriyal Sharma's passing away on February 18 is likely to prove an acid test for the Chief Minister, Harish Rawat, with the possibility of his detractors within the Congress party led by the former Chief Minister, Vijay Bahuguna, putting everything in the political sweepstakes to wrest the initiative from him.
In case the Chief Minister fails to foist one of his confidantes, things would augur ill for him as that would be deemed as an indication of his dwindling clout in the moving trajectory of the State's politics, said political analysts.
Several names are doing the rounds and they include Bollywood actor-turned politician Rajbabbar, Vijay Bahuguna, Chief Minister Harish Rawat's wife Renuka Rawat, State PCC chief Kishore Upadhyaya, and Congress spokesperson Dhirendra Pratap.
This would be do or die for Bahuguna. He had lost the race when the party High Command left him out in the cold in November 2014 while zeroing on Manorma Dobriyal Sharma for the coveted seat. This was despite Bahuguna jockeying hard for it. The State watchers said in case he fails to win the High Command over to his aspiration this time the MlAs loyal to him would not hesitate to jump the ship, given the mercurial nature of loyalty in the political quicksand.
The ruling party is now enjoying support from 41 MlAs, including 35 from the Congress excluding one nominated member and six from the Progressive Democratic Front (PDF). The figure came down from 42 following the demise of the BSP MlA and Cabinet Minister, Surendra Rakesh.
To keep the MlAs tethered to him for the crucial test ahead, the Chief Minister is now frequently interacting with the MlAs. When 'The Pioneer' quizzed him over the possibility of his wife jumping in the RS seat race, he denied, saying that she is nowhere in it. "Do you want me to lose the chair I am now holdingIJ" he shot back. However, when asked whether anyone from outside would be favoured with the seat, he chose to maintain an enigmatic silence.
The CM's insistence that it is the High Command's prerogative to take the final call on the matter, has fueled speculation that he is not sure of his ground.Sources in the power corridors said that MlA Navprabhat has been now enquiring into the procedure of filing nomination for the seat. The election would be held on March 20 and the nominations have begun on March 3. However, the final picture would be clear on March 13, the last date of withdrawal of the nomination papers.
Sources further said that Rawat would leave nothing to chance to have one of his cronies being given the crucial nomination. However, sabre-rattling continuing in the State Congress with the two factions remaining at daggers drawn, it is most likely that the High Command would zero in on an outsider like Rajbabbar to make the warring factions hold fire for the time being.