A professor of the physics department of the Garhwal Central University, Swami Ramteerth campus at Badshahi Thaul in Tehri has made an attempt to test the SIR epidemic model for Covid-19 spread in India during this pandemic period.
According to the mathematical calculations, the pandemic may reach its peak in India during August and its effect may end in the country by the end of this year. The study has been uploaded on the portal of ResearchGate- a professional network for scientists and researchers.
Professor RC Ramola of the university’s physics department has based the research on the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. The Covid-19 data of India was collected from open database of various websites to fit in the model. The infection rate, mortality figure and the number of recovered patients were studied. The research took into account the data starting from the first case found on January 30 till May 20 during the lockdown.
According to the study, after reaching the peak in the first week of August, Covid-19 will then start to subside. The research claims that the nation will be free from the effect of the disease by the end of December.
It has also been stated that since the numbers can change in the coming time, the estimated peak time and end can also vary.
Ramola said that till a vaccine is made, maintaining social distancing and observing governmental guidelines is the best way to check the spread of the virus