With the notification for the lone Rajya Sabha seat to be vacated by sitting BJP MP Tarun Vijay on July 4, the stage has been set for the election. The biennial elections would be held on June 11.
However, politically, things are interesting, given the tricky political scenario prevailing in the State which just came out of the unprecedented constitutional crisis that endured for close to two months. As things stand now, the BJP is likely to field a candidate of its own this time, hoping against hope that its candidate would sail through with support from a few MlAs of the Congress or the PDF camp.
However, the election would prove another acid test for Chief Minister Harish Rawat as he would have to fine-tune the sentiments of the MlAs who have supported him heart and soul during the grim crisis he passed through. He is hardly in a position to leave any of his MlAs in the sulk mode.
In 2012, the BJP had fielded its candidate to contest against the Congress’s Mahendra Singh Mahara. However, it failed to make any MlA from the ruling side to cross-vote in its favour. later, Manorma Dobriyal Sharma contested the RS election on Congress ticket. The BJP did not field candidate that time in keeping with the State’s tradition of unanimous election.
After Sharma died the seat fell vacant and Bollywood actor turned- politician Rajbabbar contested as a Congress candidate and won. The BJP withdrew from the race again, citing tradition.
However, now, there is a possibility of the tradition of the candidates being elected unopposed being ruptured. Though BJP's prospect to win the seat on its own strength is bleak the saffron party is unlikely to leave the field open to the Congress with both the parties remaining at loggerheads.
Sources said that the Congress is yet to decide its candidate. And Cabinet reshuffle is also long overdue. Things are in a flux with loyalty of the MlAs remaining uncertain. The PDF which comprises six MlAs might demand its pound of flesh in lieu of support for a Congress candidate. The same is true of the Congress MlAs too. The aspirants for the Cabinet berths both in the PDF and the Congress might switch loyalty and cross-vote in case their hope is not fulfilled. And things are all the more interesting for the Congress as only one of the two aspirants - Navprabhat and Rajendra Singh Bhandari - can be accommodated in the Cabinet as the second one must come from the BSP, given the present state of things.
The RS election would take the form of another cliffhanger in case the BJP chooses to field its leader Satpal Maharaj and if Navaprabhat is included in the Cabinet at the expense of Bhandari. Maharaj again appealing to the conscience of the Congress MlAs loyal to him might land Bhandari and others of his ilk in a moral quandary.
"There is little doubt that Satpal Maharaj and the BJP would go the whole hog of winning the RS seat if he is made the party's candidate. Along with it the possibility of another breath-taking suspense drama unfolding in the State's political realm can hardly be ruled out," said an observer.