One has been witnessing a sense of déjà vu in social media among some sections of Indian population and few of the people from Uttarakhand--particularly motivated as no new case has surfaced in last five days in the State- about the possible control of deadly novel coronavirus (COVID-19) disease in the not too distant future.
This euphoric feeling perhaps emanates from the fact that our national casualties in comparison to some of the worst hit countries of the developed western world are relatively marginal. We are indeed in the midst of one of the worst crises that the world has witnessed. History will judge us harshly if we do not learn from the lessons of fighting similar pandemic of the past and superficially venture into arriving at any hasty conclusion on the prevailing crises of COVID-19 pandemic.
Spanish flu in 1918 accounted for approximately 1.8 crore deaths in India and 10 crore from various countries across the globe. India lost about 6 per cent of its population and 1/5th of the total death toll was from India. This Spanish flew had destroyed the Indian economy. The pandemic had spread with unimaginable speed and India under the British rule then was highly unprepared to deal with such a deadly pandemic. The healthcare system had completely broken down. Most of the medical efforts then were busy attending to WW I casualties. The Spanish flu came to India through a ship deployed for world war efforts and which berthed at Mumbai port. The deadly disease spread like a wildfire and the overcrowded city of Mumbai became a fertile ground for spread of this pandemic further across the length and width of the nation. As per some accounts, banks of river Ganga were swollen with dead bodies and even shortage of wood was experienced for cremation of the deceased.
Yet another case is that of a fatal pandemic of bubonic plague (1346-1353) also known as black death which accounted for death of more than 10 crore people in Eurasia and north Africa. It is estimated that this plague pandemic had killed more than 30 to 60 per cent of population and took almost 200 years for Europe to recover to the same population level. Black death was terrifying and highly contagious. It could spread by merely touching the clothes of the infected people. The deadly disease could consume even healthiest of persons in a matter of few hours.
This happened in the era when medical facilities were primitive and countries were ill equipped to take care of the seriously ill who needed life support system. In absence of any remedy people even back then were advised to remain inside their houses, not to visit crowded areas and pay attention to personal hygiene.
To control the pandemic of the past, first and foremost important point was that leaders needed to be innovative and proactive in utilising the resources at hand and initiating measures to alter the situation. The efficient and proactive officials of Venetian controlled port city of Ragusa were able to slow the spread of bubonic plague by keeping the arriving sailors through various ships in isolation until the symptoms of the disease completely disappeared. This was a perfect example of social distancing to avoid spread of the plague. The sailors were initially held on board their ship for 30 days (a trentino), a period that was later increased to 40 days or “quarantine”, a term much discussed during the present crisis as well.
During such crisis there is always a trend of receiving various suggestions and solutions from effected populace. Even during past pandemics the solutions which worked during the crisis were decisive leadership, separation, isolation and social distancing. Economic cost in such crises is generally humongous but if weighed against human lives it was a cost worth paying.
The cases of pandemic during centuries ago did not have the modern tracking, tracing and hospital equipment available today. However, use of facilities solely depended on the resourcefulness of the leadership but the issues which remain common with the past pandemic are very much relevant including social distancing in present day scenario.
So far, India has managed the crisis relatively well. The major reason for this has been pre empting the situation, clear/assertive and unambiguous leadership at national and state level followed by proactive government machinery from the centre to state and right up to the village level. Measures institutionalised for prevention, mitigation, preparedness and response are being pursued with unprecedented alacrity in India and with the present system in place, the phases of recovery and reconstruction also are expected to be attended to with equal clarity and proactiveness.
But, we have to be cautious before we start celebrating. These pandemics, even if controlled once, have uncanny knack of resurfacing later. There are waves of recurrence before it finally dies down or some curative solutions are available. The vaccination for the pandemic is likely to take a year more before it becomes effective. Earliest medicine may be available by June/July 2020, as per indications available through various media. The countries which pre-empted well and were decisive and proactive in implementation of the measures like South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Germany and India have done relatively better than the countries who were laissez faire and had too much of over confidence in fact bordering arrogance on their medical capabilities. We still have a long path to tread and we need to continue to observe the protocol for considerable time ahead so as to get rid of the deadly virus. We should be cautiously optimistic and we have not reached the point where we can start celebrating based on the relative trend the disease is indicating.
(The author is retired Additional Director General of Indian Coast Guard and is presently pursuing his PhD)