Chief Minister Harish Rawat's visit to Delhi to meet the party high command has, on the expected lines, created ripples in the State. The political circles are agog with excitement, speculating on possible situations that might emerge if the Chief Minister goes for the long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle.
Will the PDF survive if the Cabinet is reshuffled on his termsIJ In case the Cabinet is reshuffled would the Chief Minister make the same mistake that his predecessor Vijay Bahuguna had done by inducting detractors belonging to the Rawat campIJ
These are the questions that are doing the rounds in the corridors of power. Sources are, however, convinced that Rawat would not bungle the way Bahuguna did.
Currently, the Congress- led Harish Rawat Government is enjoying the support from 43 MlAs out of the present State Assembly strength of 71- 35 from Congress, one nominated and seven PDF, which consists of three BSP, three independent and one UKD (P) MlAs.
The Chief Minister seems to be in a fix over Bahuguna pressuring him to induct his two staunch loyalists — Dr Shailendra Mohan Singhal (Jaspur) and Subodh Uniyal (Narendranagar) — into his Cabinet. Sources said Rawat has taken up the matter with the party's high command, arguing that in case he acquiesces it would prove exceedingly difficult for him to execute the works he has promised to the people on the ground that such induction would exacerbate intra-party bickering.
To defuse the upcoming crisis likely to be unleashed by the camp antagonistic to him, the Chief Minister would do everything to keep the coalition applecart intact for his own survival. The shriller the rival camp's scream for his scalp the deeper would be his dependence on the coalition, said an observer.
Sources said in view of the possibility of 10 Congress MlAs from the rival camp quitting the party, the Chief Minister has put into place an exigency plan. Even if such a thing happens he has not much to worry as the Government would enjoy support from 32 MlAs with the BJP figure in the legislature remaining the same- 28.
However, in case the PDF collapses and the dissident Congress MlAs snap ties with the party, the Rawat Government would be reduced to a minority. And if things precipitate this way there is the possibility that the BJP and the PDF would join hands and would somehow prop up a Government of their own with 35 MlAs in its kitty - the same as the magic figure in the State Assembly. An astute politician in the full knowledge of the intrigues and shenanigans being cast to oust him from the saddle of power, Harish Rawat is the last person to push the coalition into jeopardy, an observer said.
Currently, six Congress MlAs — Indira Hridayesh, Yashpal Arya, Harak Singh Rawat, Dinesh Aggrawal, Pritam Singh and Surendra Singh Negi — are in the Cabinet along with five out of seven MlAs of the Progressive Democratic Front (PDF) - Mantri Prasad Naithani, Harish Chandra Durgapal, Pritam Singh Panwar, Surendra Rakesh and Dinesh Dhanai (who had replaced Amrita Rawat by CM Rawat). Amrita Rawat was removed in the aftermath of her husband Satpal Maharaj having switched to the BJP from the Congress during the general election-2014.
Given the numerical equations in the Assembly, several Congress satraps most of whom belonging to the anti-Harish Rawat factions keep demanding that the Congress should reduce the presence of the PDF in the Cabinet with the party's presence having crossed the magic figure on its own - 36 out of 71 MlAs, including one nominated member. However, it is most unlikely that the Chief Minister would be hoodwinked into destabilising his Government by antagonizing the PDF.
Notably, the Congress had won mere 32 seats during the Assembly election in 2012. later, the then Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna had managed to rope in a BJP MlA from Sitarganj, Kiran Mandal. That was followed by Congress making RV Gardener the nominated MlA. Then Bahuguna became a member of the Vidhan Sabha after he won Sitarganj by-poll. The number for the Congress rose up to 34. later, Bahuguna was replaced by Harish Rawat in February last. Thereafter, the Congress MlA Harish Dhami vacated Dharchula seat to usher in Chief Minister Rawat in the Assembly. later, two MlAs from the BJP — ex-CM Dr Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank and Ajay Tamta — resigned from the Assembly after they were elected to the lok Sabha from Haridwar and Almora lok Sabha constituencies, respectively, during the last general election. later, the Congress defeated the BJP in all three Assembly by-polls - Dharchula, Doiwala and Someshwar. This helped the Congress to reach the magic figure - 36, including the nominated MlA.
The question is, under these circumstances, if Rawat reshuffles his Cabinet whose heads would roll in the ruling partyIJ