The BJP has decided to field Roorkee BJP district president Rajpal as its candidate for the April 11 Bhagwanpur Assembly by-poll that has been necessitated by the demise of Cabinet Minister Surendra Rakesh. He has filed his nomination too.
The BJP strategists admit it would be tough to wrest the seat if the Congress fields the widow of the late Minister, Mamta Rakesh. Sympathy factor would pull things in her favour. However, if the Congress chooses to field Subodh Rakesh, the late Minister’s brother, the BJP might wrest the seat, the saffron party insiders said.
Besides, the parties must keep the Dalit factor in view. The seat is reserved for Scheduled Caste. Another thing that can prove decisive is the Muslim factor. They are in a position in terms of number to tilt the balance at the hustings.
“We are waiting for the Congress to bungle things by giving the nomination to Sobodh Rakesh. In case things come this way the BJP would have a fair chance to register its victory in the crucial by-poll,” a BJP leader said.
Rajpal had contested the 2012 Assembly election and ended up figuring third after Surendra Rakesh of the BSP and Satyapal of the Congress.
BJP strategists confide, things would not prove glorious for them this time too, given the clout the CM enjoys among the Dalits, courtesy his well-timed announcement of two medical colleges — one each in Bhagawanpur and the other in Pithoragarh. Wily Harish Rawat has considerably consolidated the Dalit vote bank by such generous largesse, they stated.
Sources said that the upper caste people like Brahmin, Thakur and Bania have never been in a position to flex electoral muscles with Surendra Rakesh enjoying invincible clout among the electorate of the constituency.
The Dalit in particular chose to remain tethered to him through thick and thin. Now, with his widow coming up in the fray, things are unlikely to change for the better for the BJP.
left with little manoeuvrability in terms of electoral arithmetic, the BJP is engaged in consolidating the upper caste vote bank. They would also bank on the disgruntlement in the Congress rank and file over the party playing second fiddle to BSP activists.
The BJP is likely to eat into Congress votes by driving wedges between the Congress and the BSP activists. The BSP has already announced that they would not field any candidate.
However, its leaders are worried too, thinking the Congress might absorb the party by hijacking its constituency — the Dalit — by showcasing the widow of the deceased Minister. Such fear is based on facts as its vote bank keeps on declining.
For instance, during the 2002 Assembly election, the BSP had won seven seats. In 2007, they added one more seat to the kitty, taking the figure to eight. But during the 2012 Assembly election, the figure dipped to just three. Now with Surendra Rakesh’s death, it has come down to two.
The observers said it would occasion no surprise if a section of the State BSP decides to throw weight, albeit clandestinely, behind the BJP candidate to arrest the bludgeoning clout of the Congress amongst its traditional constituency - the Dalits.