Caste and regional factors casting their shadows over the electoral equations in the State in every election, the BJP has firmed up a strategy of not allowing the Chief Minister Harish Rawat to breathe easy. Rawat, who is leading the Congress brigade as the mascot of the party in the State, hailing from Kumaon region and belonging to Thakur caste, the BJP brass has decided to unleash the former CM Bhagat Singh Koshyari and the former MP Satpal Maharaj on him to dent into his supposed invincibility. The duo is figuring prominently in the election hoardings the saffron party is putting up. While Koshyari hails from Kumaon and belongs to Thakur caste Maharaj is from Garhwal and belongs to Thakur caste. “BJP is aware of the CM’s game plan to rally Thakur community votes across the two divisions and also the people of Kumaon region to his side while ascribing his short-lived ouster from the helm of the state to the conspiracy hatched mainly by some Brahmin leaders from Garhwal region. Keeping this in view, the saffron strategists have decided to project the two satraps as the possible CM of the state in case the party grabs the majority to stop the wily CM from consolidating his targeted constituencies the way he wants,” said a state watcher.
Notably, Thakur caste comprises 48 percent of Uttarakhand’s electorate with the Brahmins constituting around 22 percent. In this scenario, the political parties always seek to fine-tune their poll strategies while keeping a balance between the two major communities of the State. Besides, they take into account the regional factor keeping in view the supposed divide existing between the two regions- Garhwal and Kumaon. The ruling Congress balanced things by roping in the Garhwali Brahmin leader Kishore Upadhyay as the PCC president to counterbalance the CM hailing from Kumaon and belonging to the Thakur caste. Similarly, BJP had sought the same balance by appointing Kumaon Brahmin Ajay Bhatt as the leader of Opposition while positing Garhwali Thakur Teerath Singh Rawat as the state BJP president. However, currently both posts are being held by Ajay Bhatt.
Observers say, citing myriad instances from the State polls held over the years, that the Thakur votes tend to consolidate when there is a Thakur contender in the reckoning. “For instance, during the 2012 Assembly election, the incumbent CM Maj Gen Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri, a Brahmin, was humbled at Kotdwar constituency by the Thakur Congress leader Surendra Singh Negi,” said one of the observers.
Another state watcher cited the zigzag of the CM Harish Rawat’s electoral fortunes to buttress the point of Thakur consolidation swinging results one way or the other. “Following his victory in the lok Sabha election from Almora constituency in 1980, Harish Rawat tasted defeat many a time in the hands of a Thakur stalwart from BJP Bachi Singh Rawat as the Thakur votes rallied behind the latter. Meanwhile, after Almora lok Sabha constituency became a reserved one following 2008 delimitation, Harish Rawat shifted to Garhwal and won from Hardwar lok Sabha seat during general election-2009. It was clear at that time that while the Brahmin votes polarized against the Harish Rawat Thakur votes split between two Thakur leaders in the contest, helping him to sail through,” said the state watcher.
During the President’s rule, when CM Rawat was wandering in the political wilderness following flag of revolt raised by nine of the Congress MlAs, crafty Rawat tried to stoke the Thakur and Kumaoni sentiment. Despite BJP making desperate attempts to poach other MlAs, the game did not succeed as the Thakur MlAs and those from Kumaon region chose to stand by Harish Rawat like a rock.
The beleaguered Congress leader weathering the worst crisis in his chequered political career laid the Thakur card on the table while exhorting the Thakur MlAs to stand by him during those trying times. He raised the scepter of his being the last Thakur CM of the state if the Garhwali Brahmin leaders succeeded in their design. “The ploy succeeded which is why he is still at the helm of the state when it is heading for polls,” said an observer.