As borders disappear in the sandstorm of religious and ethnic strife and the barbaric Islamic State marches on in the region, Israel re-strategises to deal with an uncertain future
When you look at the rapidly changing map of the Middle East and see borders considered inflexible till recently vanish in the raging sandstorm of ethnic and religious strife, you cannot but come to the conclusion that this is history being remade as never before. That would be the view of scholars and analysts who have the luxury of time to sit back and reflect on events that nobody could have predicted, even after the civil war began in Syria. The Arab Spring was never meant to have ushered in a summer of change and hope; those who believed so were either naive or willingly glossed over the past that, whether we like it or not, allows us to have a clear-headed view of the future.
For people who live in the Middle East and are unsure of what tomorrow holds for them, there is no such luxury. Every day is another day; yesterday becomes irrelevant as the sands of Arabia swirl and settle into new realities with a lifecycle shorter than can be imagined by detached observers from a distance. “It’s a madhouse,” says a senior Israeli official, “but there is a method to this madness”. To survive these brutal times, it is imperative to try and understand the method that drives the madness around Israel.
At a simple, easily understandable level, what is happening in Iraq and across the levant is a return to the times of the Ottoman Empire when borders did not exist defining one country from another. Had Istanbul been wise and not taken sides in the First World War (it chose to go with the loser even though the victor was obvious by then), the course of history may have been different. The ifs and buts of history decided otherwise.
It will, therefore, not be incorrect to suggest that what is being witnessed is the unravelling of history, as it was forced upon the Middle East by drawing lines in the sand and decreeing that those would define nation states after the demise of the Ottoman Empire. As in many other parts of the world, this Anglo-French enterprise in erecting unviable states was doomed to fail. Indeed, it could not have been any other way. It would have required a giant leap of imagination to believe that Shias, Sunnis and Kurds would live in eternal harmony as Iraqis. Was it ignorant naivety or deliberate mischiefIJ
Hindsight tells us how wrong the map-makers of Middle East as we knew it, and shall never know again, were in the artificial construction of states. But that knowledge is of cold comfort as the Islamic State continues to expand the expanse of its 21st century Caliphate with medieval barbaric means of dominance. Syria, once considered stable and solid among all Middle Eastern Islamic countries under Bashar al-Assad’s Baathist regime, is now tottering on the edge of total collapse. Damascus rules Damascus, elsewhere it’s radical Islam, affiliated with either Al Qaeda or the Islamic State, that flies the pirate’s flag.
Iraq has crumbled and Baghdad has residuary powers of a country that has been blown to smithereens. Yemen is trapped in the vortex of internal strife and external war. Rather late in the day Saudi Arabia appears to be waking up to the fact that spending billions of petrodollars on ‘charity’ was not a terribly good idea; the blowback is begging to be felt with Islamists turning on their loving patrons. There is a huge gulf that separates the idea of Sunni dominance and the House of Saud.
In the Maghreb, libya’s rapid descent into strife would have surprised only those who actually cheered the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. Tunisia is holding on, but just about. But for General Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi and his Army, Egypt would have been a basket case too with the Ikhwan-ul-Muslimeen ensuring chaos and disorder. But Gen Sisi has other problems. Managing civilian rule through proxy is only one of them. Fighting Islamic State affiliates in the Sinai is another. Unseen by the world, a battle for control rages in the Sinai desert, right next door to Israel.
Amid all this chaos exists Israel, politically stable, economically booming and socially modern. It is an island that defies conventional wisdom and stands firm in its belief that not only does the Jewish state have the right to exist, it has the right to do so on its own terms. The Islamic State is a distant thunder at the moment. And since nobody can predict with any accuracy the turn of events in this part of the world, the wannabe Caliphate is on the radar but it does not dominate the screen, crowding out other realities.
One of these realities is the looming threat posed by Iran, especially after the US-brokered deal. The battle for dominance is not only that of Sunnis, it is equally that of Shias. Iran would want to see itself, and thereby Shias, holding sway over the Middle East, with Sunnis as petitioners in Tehran’s court. Iran, therefore, is the ingredient that makes the cocktail of Middle Eastern strife particularly toxic. In Iraq, it props up the remnants of the tattered post-Saddam regime. In Syria, it still hopes to have a say in deciding the direction of events, though with Russia openly entering the battlefield, the future remains uncertain.
In lebanon, Iranian support for the Hezbollah has never been in doubt. Will it now increase as more money flows into Iran after sanctions are easedIJ How much of that money, by way of arms and logistical support, was up in southern lebanonIJ And how much in GazaIJ These are some of the questions to which answers are being sought. There is also the uncharted minefield of deceit which has been the fulcrum of violence directed at Israel. In Gaza, for instance, Hamas is daggers drawn with pro-Islamic State Salafists. But if Shia Iran could arm and fund Sunni Hamas to further its ‘Destroy Israel’ agenda, how long before it makes common cause with Salafists who would want to see Israel destroyedIJ
Iran may have made the right sounds and gestures to get the deal it needed to ease off crippling sanctions, but it has not moved an inch away from where it has always stood as far as Israel is concerned. The ‘Shia Bomb’ is as much for Shia dominance as for exterminating Israel, wiping the Jewish state off the map of the world. Washington, DC, believes that threat has receded, that we shall see a new, more responsible, more sober Iran emerge in the next 15 years. From Jerusalem, the view is diametrically different.
Fifteen years is a tiny fragment of time in the Middle East. It is not a decade-and-a-half as we would view it from our part of the world. Israel remains convinced that Iran has not abandoned its nuclear bomb programme, that it will step on the accelerator once sanctions go and the West races to do business with Tehran, turning a blind eye to its intentions. Oil may be at a discount, but trade with Iran promises a premium. Meanwhile, Iran will want to move the pieces on the chessboard of Middle East politics.
In all this there is a sense of abandonment. The US, which was a dominant player in Middle East affairs, is now on the retreat. As an academic at Tel Aviv University put it, “The US is now leading from the back.” But that’s another story, to be told another day.
(The writer is a current affairs analyst based in NCR)