As the electors of Haryana braces for the October 21 State Assembly polls, their crucial vote will decide the fate of regional parties, which are looking at a risk of going into oblivion after their dismal run in the past elections.
While the Bharatiya Janata Party is looking to retain power in Haryana, another national party-Congress is hoping for a comeback in the state. However, the State Assembly polls is no less than a matter of survival for the regional parties including Indian National Lok Dal, Jannayak Janta Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Aam Aadmi Party among others.
The 90-member Haryana assembly will go to polls on October 21.
Apart from national parties—BJP and Congress, the regional players in the fray for 2019 assembly polls are Indian National Lok Dal-Shiromani Akali Dal alliance, JJP, AAP, BSP, Loktantra Suraksha Party (LSP) and Swaraj India.
The three regional players—JJP, LSP and AAP-- will contest the Haryana Assembly polls for the first time. These three political parties had failed to impress in Lok Sabha polls held earlier this year.
The data with Election Commission shows that ascend of the BJP in the state in past election has pushed the regional parties to the wall.
In the year 2014, the BJP had roared to power recording absolute majority for the first time on its own in Haryana, recording a vote share of 33.24 percent. This was a huge jump from saffron party’s vote share of just 9.05 percent recorded in 2009, 10.36 percent in 2005, 8.94 percent in 2000 and 8.88 percent in 1996 State Assembly polls.
While the saffron party had managed to win 47 seats in 2014 Assembly, it had never won more than 16 assembly seats or was polled more than 10.8 percent votes in any of the past Haryana assembly elections.
From four MLAs in 2009 to 47 in 2014, the BJP has now set its eyes on winning ‘75 seats’ in 2019 assembly polls.
The poll results in Haryana suggests that other political parties have failed to hold their ground as their vote share continued to decline in the past several election cycles.
According to the political observers, leadership crisis and factionalism in opposition parties have also led to the strengthening of BJP in the state.
The EC data reveal that there is a surprising degree of instability and decline in the relative appeal of national party Congress and INLD, which was once a major regional player.
The Congress’ vote share was 20.61 percent in 2014 State Assembly polls, a decline from 35.11 percent in 2009 polls and 42.46 percent vote in 2005 polls.
For the INLD, there is a continuous downfall in vote share from 2000 assembly polls. It recorded 29.61 percent vote share in 2000, 26.77 percent in 2005, 25.81 percent in 2009 and 24.73 per cent in 2014.
In 2014, the BJP had won 47 seats, INLD secured 19 seats, Congress managed to win 15, Haryana Janhit Congress (merged with Congress) won two, one each was won by Shiromani Akali Dal and Bahujan Samaj Party and five independents were elected to the 90-member State Assembly.
Prior to this in 2009 assembly polls, the Congress had won 40 seats, INLD 31, HJC 6, BJP 4, BSP 1 and independents won eight seats.
The BSP had won one seat each in past four assembly polls while its vote share had declined to 4.52 percent in 2014 from 6.74 in 2009 assembly elections. The BSP’s vote share was 5.44 in 1996, 5.74 in 2000 and 3.22 in 2005.
While talking to The Pioneer, Kulwant Singh Nehra, Assistant Professor, RBI chair at Chandigarh-based Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development (CRRID) said, “The infighting in Congress and leadership crisis in INLD have weakened these political parties while ‘Modi factor’ has strengthened the BJP in Haryana in the past five years. Also, strong polarization of non-Jat vote has been working in favour of BJP and is a big disadvantage to regional parties.”
“A regional party --Haryana Vikas Party-- founded by former Chief Minister Bansi Lal had managed to woo the voters in 1996 assembly polls and had later merged into the Congress in 2004. Another regional player-Haryana Janhit Congress founded by former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal had failed to impress the voters and it had merged with the Congress in 2016,” he said.
Nehra said, “INLD was once a strong regional player but after its chief OP Chautala went to prison in 2013 and then party’s split last year, this regional party is now battling for its survival in state’s politics. There are several regional parties like JJP, BSP, AAP and LSP in the fray. But apart from JJP, others are unlikely to make a major impact on the voters this time,” he said.
“On most of the assembly seats in Haryana, the contest is either two-cornered or three-cornered with BJP, Congress and JJP being the major players,” Nehra said.
“In the past one year, many prominent leaders from various political parties have joined the ruling BJP, helping it gaining a distinct advantage over its rivals in the elections,” he added.
Notably, the saffron party had won all 10 parliamentary seats in Haryana in general elections 2019.
Not only in assembly polls but the BJP’s vote share had also witnessed increase in Lok Sabha polls. The saffron party got 58 percent vote share in 2019 parliamentary polls against the vote share of 34.7 per cent in 2014 and 17.21 per cent in 2009 general elections.
Even as the Congress’ vote share increased to 28.42 percent in Lok Sabha polls 2019 from 22.9 percent in 2014 polls, the party had failed to register a victory even on a single seat in the state.
The INLD’s vote share declined to dismal 1.89 percent in 2019 from its vote share of 24.4 per cent in 2014. The AAP’s vote share had also declined to 0.4 percent in 2019 LS polls from 4.2 percent in 2014.
On the other hand, the BSP had got a vote share of 3.64 percent in general elections, a decline from its vote share of 4.6 per cent in 2014 and 4.98 per cent in 2009.