From the Lok Sabha elections in May till now, there are more than 50 leaders who have changed their party and revolted from their original party in Haryana, changing the political equations at the ground.
In the last two to three days, there has been continuous rebellion in all the parties. But this is not the first time this happened in the Haryana Assembly elections.
Those party leaders and workers denied tickets and the candidates who switched sides or file nomination papers ahead of the Assembly elections due on October 21 may upset calculations of both Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
In 2014 State Assembly election, a total of 61 rebels of various political parties including BJP, Congress, Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) fought election and 11 won, reaching the assembly.
In the last Assembly elections, the BJP had reached the majority with the help of some rebels who had joined the party just ahead of the polls. Political observers are asking will it be the case this time round too.
In the Assembly election of 2019, the INLD is not the only party with a problem of desertions. Congress, BJP, AAP and BSP too have many rebel leaders and, workers who could possibly spoil its chances of electoral victory.
The ruling BJP too is facing a serious problem after dropping two sitting ministers and several MLAs in the Assembly elections. Some of them have turned rebels by announcing their candidature against the official party candidates while a dozen other leaders at district level have publicly expressed their ire over "betrayal" by the party.
Ahead of the Haryana assembly polls due on October 21, its the rebel factor that has become a headache for both the BJP and the Congress. The nominations of all the parties including Congress and BJP have completed on Friday and many of their rebels have filed nominations against the official party candidates.
While both parties are now trying to improve their performance in 2019 Assembly election, the Congress is facing a bigger challenge as a number of their leaders and workers switched to the BJP or filed nomination papers as Indeoendents.
INLD seems to be out of the race to form the government in the State as most of its sitting MLAs and leaders switched over to BJP and Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) and has failed to field its candidates in all the 90 Assembly seats. In BJP, rebels are not coming out openly against the party but there is a problem. In contrast, the rebellion within the Congress camp over ticket distribution is clearly visible.
Fielding sports personalities has also backfired in the BJP as Somvir Sangwan announced to seek election from Dadri against Babita Phogat (29), female wrestler who won the gold medal in the Commonwealth Games in 2014 and 2018, while Swami Sandeep Onkar declared to file papers against former Indian hockey captain Sandeep Singh from Pehowa. BJP's sitting MLA from Rewari, Randhir Kapriwas, who was denied ticket, has entered the fray as an Independent.
From Gurgaon, sitting legislator of BJP Umesh Aggarwal fielded his wife Anita from the constituency as an Independent candidate. BJP's Guhla MLA Kulwant Ram Bazigar had said that the party should tell him why he has not been re-nominated.
Those who threatened to take on the BJP candidates as independent candidates include Gokul Setia from Sirsa, sitting MLA Dinesh Kaushik, who only recently joined the BJP, from Pundri, BSP MLA Tek Chand Sharma who also only recently joined the BJP, and Sanjay Singh from Assandh against party nominee Bakhshish Singh Virk. Local leader Rajinder Deshujoda declared his candidature from Kallianwali against the BJP ticket given to Akali Dal ML Balkaur Singh.
The saffron party accommodated several turncoats, mostly from the Indian National Lok Dal, who joined it ahead of the Lok Sabha polls and the upcoming Vidhan Sabha elections. However, Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar downplayed reports of rebellion in the BJP over ticket allotment, claiming no leader would go against the party.
Khattar said the BJP had denied ticket to 12 of its sitting MLAs and barring one or two, none had filed nomination papers as Independents. “I am confident we will convince them to withdraw,” the CM said. He assured the sulking leaders to keep in mind their interests after the polls. "We will ensure their maan-samman (honour) after the elections," he said. On turncoats in the fray, Khattar said leaders of other parties, including sitting MLAs, had joined the BJP of their own will. Questioned on the criteria for selection of candidates, the CM said there could not be one rule for all seats. Every constituency is different. Exuding confidence of winning 75-plus seats in the October 21 poll, he said the party’s endeavour would be to perform even better.
In Congress, the former minister and four-time MLA Nirmal Singh and his daughter Chitra Sarwara, who was the general secretary of the All-India Mahila Congress, have rebelled against party’s official nominee from Ambala Cantonment. She has filed her nomination from Ambala Cantonment, while her father is in fray from Ambala Cantt, both as Independent candidates. The father-daughter duo has resigned from the party. Grappling with infighting and rebellion, the Congress warned rebels who have filed nomination from Ambala City and Cantt segments, asking them to withdraw their nomination in the larger interest of the party.
The Congress has fielded former MLA Jasbir Singh from Ambala City and first-timer Venu Singla from Ambala Cantt. Singla is the wife of a leading businessman and considered a confidante of State party president Kumari Selja. In 2014, the Congress had lost both Ambala City and Cantonment Assembly seats to the ruling BJP. The Congress leadership has acknowledged differences over ticket distribution, but urged the father-daughter duo to show maturity.
Congress leader Ranjit Singh Chautala, son of late deputy prime minister Devi Lal, entered the fray from Rania as Independent after failing to secure a ticket. From Rania, Congress fielded Vineet Kamboj. A senior Congress leader said that action will be taken against these leaders for refusing to withdraw their nominations for the assembly elections in favour of candidates picked by the party.
INLD, formed by former deputy prime minister the late Devi Lal, has suffered a series of setbacks during the past one year after its split because of a feud in the Chautala family. Most of INLD's sitting MLAs and prominent leaders have switched over to the BJP. In the outgoing assembly, INLD had 19 legislators, but two of its MLAs died and several switched over to BJP. Several INLD turncoats, the majority of them sitting MLAs, have been given tickets by the BJP.
Haryana observers opined that in previous elections too, the leaders had revolted and contested from other parties or independents. It is not necessary that every leader who goes to the polls by revolting wins the election, but only spoils the game of others.
When a leader rebels from his party and enters the electoral fray, the biggest damage is done to the same party from whom he revolted. Looking at the history of the last elections, it has happened many times when the party did not give ticket to any leader, he revolted and contested and defeated the official party candidate. Invariably, they damage the chances of the party.
In the 2014 Assembly elections, there were 61 rebels who left their party and contested from other party or independents, 11 of them won. There were 50 such leaders who could not win the election.
Out of these 50, there were 22 leaders who finished second or third and it was the loss of the party from which they rebelled and the candidates of the other party took advantage of it.
In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP benefitted from the rebels. Of the 11 MLAs, 2 were independents and 2 were from INLD while 7 rebels became MLAs on BJP ticket. Due to this, the party could get an absolute majority.