After being carved into a new constituency following delimitation, Gurugram’s electoral fate hinges on caste factor with Ahirs and Meo Muslim voters deciding the eventual winner.
These two communities account for more than 40 percent of the electorate in Gurugram Lok Sabha constituency.
In 2014 general elections, there were three Yadavs and one Meo Muslim candidate representing major political parties in the fray.
Riding on a pro-Modi wave, BJP’s Rao Inderjit Singh, a former Congressman had won from Gurugram parliamentary seat in last elections. Rao Inderjit Singh, a prominent Ahir community leader had won by nearly 2.74 lakh votes against his nearest rival of the Indian National Lok Dal’s Zakir Hussain, a Meo Muslim.
The Congress’s candidate was Rao Dharampal and Aam Aadmi Party had fielded Yogendra Yadav, a big name in the intellectual and academic circles of the country.
Considering the significance of caste equations in the Gurugram parliamentary constituency, the three major political parties-the Congress, BJP and AAP-had all fielded Yadav candidates while the INLD had Meo Muslim candidate, Zakir Hussain.
Unable for finding a suitable candidate from its own ranks in the State, the BJP had to rely on Rao Inderjit Singh, who was a Congressman for over 35 years and had switched over to the BJP before the 2014 general elections.
According to the political analysts, the former Congressman, Rao Inderjit Singh was counting on the “Modi magic” to retain his seat and it worked for him in the 2014 polls.
Rao Inderjit Singh, who is Union Minister of State for Chemicals and Fertilisers had himself credited his victory to Modi wave saying that it acted as a “catalyst” in the 2014 polls. Rao Inderjit had secured over 6.44 lakh votes (48.82 percent) while his nearest rival Zakir Hussain was polled 3.70 lakh votes (28,02 percent). Congress’ nominee Rao Dharmpal got 1.33 lakh votes (10.12 percent) while AAP’s Yogendra Yadav, who has left the party now, was polled 79452 votes (6.02 percent)
The Gurugram Lok Sabha constituency, on one side has urban assembly segment of Gurgaon with towering corporate offices and posh residential complexes while on the other side, there is Mewat (Nuh), one of country’s poorest district.
The parliamentary seat voters’ are spread over nine assembly segments including Bawal (SC), Rewari, Pataudi (SC), Gurugram, Sohna, Nuh, Ferozepur and Punhana. In 2014 polls, Rao Inderjit Singh had led in five constituencies while INLD’s Zakir Hussain had taken the lead in Nuh, Ferozepur, Punhana and Badshahpur.
According to the Election Commission, the parliamentary constituency has 17.89 lakh voters including Gurugram and Badshahpur segments having more than 6 lakh voters.
Gurugram, which earlier came under Mahendragarh parliamentary seat was made a separate constituency after the delimitation process before 2009 Lok Sabha polls. At present, Mahendragarh, which has now been clubbed with the Bhiwani-Mahendragarh parliamentary constituency, is represented by BJP’s MP Dharamveer.
Rao Inderjit, a stalwart in the Ahirwal politics of south Haryana, was first elected to the Lok Sabha from Mahendragarh Lok Sabha seat in 1998 and re-elected from the same seat in 2004. He had also remained a Union Minister of State in the UPA regime.
Political analysts say that the Gurugram Lok Sabha seat is Ahir-dominated (Yadav and Rao), with more than 5 lakh voters while Meos make up over 4.5 lakh voters. The constituency also has more than 1.5 lakh Jat voters.
Since the constituency has a large number of Ahir voters, the political parties have in the past made sure to field candidates from this community.
Even in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, there were three Yadavs and one Meo Muslim in the fray from the Lok Sabha seat. Rao Inderjit, who contested on a Congress ticket in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, had defeated his nearest rival Zakir Hussain, who had contested on a BSP ticket. While Rao Inderjit was polled 2.78 lakh votes (36.83 percent), Zakir Hussain got 1.93 lakh votes (25.61 percent).
Even as Rao Inderjit’s differences with the Chief Minister Manohar Lal are well known, the Gurugram MP remains the frontrunner for a BJP ticket from the Gurugram seat in ensuing Lok Sabha polls
Their rivalry had spilled out in the open last year when at an event, Union Minister Rao Inderjit had lashed out at Manohar Lal for turning up late and even went onto say that he didn’t have much expectation from the Manohar Lal Government in the 2019 polls.
Recently, four MLAs from south Haryana, all considered close to Rao Inderjit had slammed Manohar Lal for his alleged bias against them and indifference to their constituencies. The four MLAs including a Haryana Cabinet Minister had held a press conference airing their grievances, leaving the BJP leadership red-faced.
Meanwhile, Rao Inderjit has already announced his decision not to contest after the 2019 general elections.
INLD’s MLA Zakir Hussain, who has unsuccessfully contested from Gurugram parliamentary seat twice is likely to be party’s pick for the seat again in 2019 polls while the search of probable candidates is on in Congress and Jannayak Jantra Party.