The emergence of two new political parties namely Jannayak Janta Party and Loktantra Suraksha Party and their respective new alliances may have changed the landscape of Haryana politics but the new political players are unlikely to make any major impact in the Lok Sabha polls in the state.
In general elections 2019, Haryana is witnessing a multi-cornered contest with BJP, Congress, Indian National Lok Dal, Jannayak Janta Party-Aam Aadmi Party combine, Loktantra Suraksha Party-Bahujan Samaj Party combine, flexing muscles to win the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
The political analysts, however, believe that the new alliances of JJP-AAP and LSP-BSP will not be a big factor in Haryana that goes to polling on May 12. Also, with the INLD battling a crisis of existence following its split, the contest is mostly confined to BJP and Congress in the state, they say.
The political scene in the state had taken an interesting turn last year with the split of grand old Jat-centric party INLD and formation of JJP led by Dushyant Chautala, grandson of INLD chief OP Chautala.
For both Lok Sabha polls and State Assembly polls due to be held later this year, the JJP has forged an alliance with Aam Aadmi Party of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. The JJP is contesting on seven Lok Sabha seats while AAP is fighting on three seats in Haryana.
The other new alliance in Haryana’s electoral arena is of Mayawati’s BSP with LSP formed last year by Raj Kumar Saini, rebel BJP MP. The BSP and the LSP are contesting on eight and two seats respectively in the parliamentary elections.
While the JJP-AAP alliance is eyeing the youth vote bank, the LSP-BSP tie up is formed to consolidate Dalit and backward classes voters in the state.
The state has 1.80 crore voters including 97.16 lakh male, 83.40 lakh female. Among them, Schedule Caste voters form around 19 percent in the state.
Out of total electors, there are 1.60 lakh new electors while 38.96 lakh electors are in the age group of 20-29 years and 44.38 lakh in the age group of 30-39 years. The group in the age brackets of 18-19, 20-29 and 30-39, categorized as young voters form around 47 percent of the total voters.
AAP had in 2014 polls unsuccessfully contested on all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana while JJP will contest for the first time in 2019 parliamentary polls. The BSP, on the other hand, had won once on the Ambala constituency seat (reserved) in 1998 Lok Sabha polls while the LSP will make its debut in Lok Sabha polls.
After its alliance with JJP, Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has high expectations from the state because of its proximity to the national capital, where AAP is heading the State Government. Haryana is also the home state of Arvind Kejriwal.
Notably, JJP’s supported candidate had earlier this year performed well in Jind bypolls finishing at second spot leaving behind other mainstream parties including Congress and INLD in Haryana.
Looking to boost party’s prospects in parliamentary polls, Delhi Chief Minister and AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal is busy in hectic campaigning, holding election rallies and roadshows in Haryana while BSP supremo Mayawati is also holding rallies to woo the Dalit and OBC vote bank in the state.
Prof Ashutosh Kumar, Department of Political Science, Panjab University while talking to The Pioneer, said that there is a direct fight between Congress and BJP on most of the 10 seats in Haryana. Barring one or two constituencies, JJP-AAP alliance is unlikely to make a major impact in Lok Sabha polls. On the other hand, the BSP-LSP combine will not make any big difference in the Jatland-Haryana,” he said.
He said, “Winnability factor matters a lot and people have this general perception of not wasting their vote. So they generally go for a winning party or candidate. Having said that, JJP-AAP joint candidate Dushyant Chautala, who is seeking re-election from Hisar is seen as a strong contender and probably win the seat. However, on other seats, the JJP-AAP alliance candidates will not make much impact in terms of voting percentage.”
As far as BSP-LSP is concerned, their alliance is eyeing about 19 percent Dalit vote bank in Haryana. But the alliance is not in a position to completely swing this vote bank in its favor in the state not even on two reserved seats of Ambala and Sirsa, he added.
Professor Aswini Kumar Nanda, Population Research Centre, CRRID (Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development) said that the JJP may cut into INLD Jat vote bank but this is unlikely to turn into a victory while its alliance partner AAP does not have a strong base in Haryana.
Similarly, BSP’s base in Haryana has weakened over the years. Its alliance with LSP is not seen as a threat to any major political party in the state, Prof Aswini said.