As many as 1.80 crore voters will seal the fate of 233 candidates including political bigwigs contesting on 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, which goes to polling on Sunday.
Among the total candidates in Jatland-Haryana, 40 are from national and state level recognised parties whereas 99 candidates are from registered parties and 84 are independents. This time, only 11 women candidates including four from national and state level recognised parties and seven independents are in the fray.
The stakes are high for both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and its main challenger Congress on 10 parliamentary seats in Haryana, which will also witness the State Assembly polls to elect 90 legislators later this year.
In the last three general elections, the people of the state have reposed faith in either Congress or BJP. In both 2004 and 2009 general elections, the Congress had managed to win nine seats. However, in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the saffron party had turned the tables on the Congress, which could retain only one constituency. Riding high on Modi wave and with the help of several political turncoats, the BJP had managed to win seven seats while the Indian National Lok Dal had won two seats in 2014 general polls.
The BJP had registered victory on Lok Sabha seats including Gurugram, Faridabad, Kurukshetra, Karnal, Ambala (reserved constituency), Bhiwani-Mahendragarh and Sonipat, INLD had won on Sirsa (reserved constituency) and Hisar seats while Congress had won only on Rohtak seat.
Later that year, the BJP had also managed to make its maiden State Government under the leadership of Chief Minister Manohar Lal in Haryana.
In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the political scene has taken an interesting turn in Haryana, which is witnessing a multi-cornered contest with the emergence of new political parties and new alliances.
The grand old Jat-centric INLD has divided and its splinter group Jannayak Janta Party is contesting the general elections in an alliance with Aam Aadmi Party of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Another fledgling outfit—Loktantra Suraksha Party— of rebel BJP MP Raj Kumar Saini, has forged an alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party of former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati to woo the dalit and backward classes voters in the state.
Even as the BJP, Congress, INLD, JJP-AAP, LSP-BSP combine are the mainstream political parties contesting on 10 parliamentary seats in Haryana, the political pundits believe that the electoral contest is mostly confined to BJP and Congress except on one or two seats.
“The poll outcome on May 23 in Haryana will set the tone for State Assembly polls due to be held later this year. Any gain in Congress’ tally this time will indicate that it is on a revival path in Haryana while gain in BJP’s tally will suggest further surge in saffron wave and that popularity of PM Narendra Modi and CM Manohar Lal is still high in the state,” say political analysts.
“The performance of INLD, JJP-AAP and LSP-BSP alliance will decide their future in the regional politics,” they say.
Exuding confidence in BJP’s poll prospects, Chief Minister Manohar Lal said that his party will win on all 10 parliamentary seats in Haryana. People are happy with the development works undertaken in last five years in Haryana under BJP’s leadership at the Centre and the state. They have made up their mind to elect Narendra Modi as their Prime Minister again to ensure national security and development of the country, he said.
The poll outcome in Haryana will put an end to dynasty politics and corrupt regimes of Congress and INLD, he added.
Former Chief Minister and Congress veteran Bhupinder Singh Hooda said that people are fed up with the BJP, which has failed to deliver on its poll promises. All sections of the society including women, farmers, youth are suffering under the BJP’ regime and they will teach a lesson to the BJP in the elections, he said.
Political bigwigs in the fray
In the high-stakes election, many political heavyweights including former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, his son three-time MP Deepender Singh Hooda, Union Ministers Rao Inderjit Singh and Krishan Pal Gurjar, Rajya Sabha MP Kumari Selja, Haryana Congress chief Ashok Tanwar among others face an acid test in the Jatland.
In Sonipat Lok Sabha constituency, two-time former Chief Minster and Congress’ prominent Jat face Bhupinder Singh Hooda is pitted against BJP’s outgoing MP Ramesh Kaushik and Jannayak Janta Party- Aam Aadmi Party’s join candidate Digvijay Chautala while his son, three-time MP Deepender Singh Hooda, who is seeking a mandate for the fourth time is taking on BJP’s Arvind Sharma, a former MP.
Union Minister Rao Inderjit Singh is seeking re-election from Gurugram while his colleague Krishan Pal Gurjar is facing a tough fight against Congress’ Avtar Singh Bhadana in Faridabad parliamentary seat.
In Sirsa constituency, Haryana Congress chief Ashok Tawar is taking on BJP candidate Sunita Duggal, a former IRS officer and INLD’s outgoing MP Charanjit Singh Rori.
A prominent woman Dalit face of Haryana, Kumari Selja, who is a Rajya Sabha MP is contesting against BJP’s outgoing MP Rattan Lal Kataria.
The Hisar Lok Sabha seats, is witnessing an electoral contest among three scions from influential political families of Haryana. The Jannayak Janta Party-Aam Aadmi Party’s joint candidate and outgoing MP Dushyant Chautala, great –grandson of former Deputy Prime Minister Devi Lal is locked in a tough triangular poll battle against two political greenhorns --BJP's Brijender Singh, former IAS officer and great grandson of acclaimed farmer leader Sir Chhotu Ram and Congress’ nominee Bhavya Bishnoi, grandson of former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal.
In Chief Minister Manohar Lal’s hometurf- Karnal, the Congress has fielded former Speaker and MLA Kuldeep Sharma against CM’s confidant Sanjay Bhatia.
Key factors in elections
In the state, which is bitterly divided on caste lines following the violent Jat reservation agitation 2016, the caste is seen as the X-factor in shaping the poll outcomes.
The divide between Jat and non-Jat communities will decide the fate of key candidates on all 10 seats.
In the election season, the violent Jat agitation 2016 is a key issue with all political parties trying to provoke the strong caste sentiments among the voters. More than 30 people had died and over 250 were left injured in the quota stir that had made to international headlines.
In the agrarian milieu of Haryana, Jats are counted as the dominant vote bank constituting about 29 percent of state’s population (around 25 percent of the electorate) and stated to have always polarized behind a favoured Jat leader in the maze of state politics. While around 25 percent of total electorate in Haryana are Jats, the remaining 75 percent are non-Jats, which include Dalits, Brahmins, Yadavs, Gujjars, Baniyas, Rajputs among others. Dalits voters form around 20 percent in the state.
As per the election trends, the Jat vote bank has traditionally voted for the Congress and rival Indian National Lok Dal. After INLD’s split, its splinter group Jannayak Janta Party is further segregating the Jat votes.
While the BJP is banking on strong polarization of non-Jat vote bank, the Congress is hopeful of consolidation of Jat vote bank to capture maximum seats in Haryana.
The popularity of PM Narendra Modi and his nationalism plank may also work in Haryana, from where youth have significantly contributed in the armed forces.
Apart from “Modi factor” and nationalism plank, the performance of BJP Government led by a Punjabi Chief Minister Manohar Lal in Haryana will also be another major factor.
Though his government has delivered the hat-trick of failures on law and order front during incidents like Jat quota agitation 2016, Dera violence 2017 and violence during arrest of Baba Rampal, Manohar Lal also has to his credit, success of Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao, transparent transfer and recruitment policies.
Manohar Lal has also led party to election victories in Jind bypoll and direct mayoral polls in five major cities of Haryana last year.
Voters’ profile
Out of the total 1,80,56,896 (1.80 crore) electors, 97,16,516 are male, 83,40,173 are female and 207 are transgender electors in Haryana.
In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the voting percentage in the state was 71.86 percent against 67.48 polling percentage recorded during the previous 2009 parliamentary polls.
Among total voters this time, three lakh electors are in the age group of 18-19 years. Similarly, 38.96 lakh electors are in the age group of 20-29 years, 44.38 lakh in the age group of 30-39 years, 35.46 lakh in the age group of 40-49 years, 27.86 lakh in the age group of 50-59 years, 17.31 lakh in the age group of 60-69 years, 8.87 lakh in the age group of 70-79 years and 4.27 lakh electors are those who are above 80 years of age.
The state has 5910 registered centenarian voters (100 years of age or above).
Interestingly, there are 20,428 such voters in the state, whose birthday is on May 12, the polling day.
Gurugram parliamentary seat has maximum number of voters i.e. 21,50,668 followed by 19,04193 voters in Karnal Lok Sabha seat.
The Election Commission has set up 19441 polling stations including 16 auxiliary stations in the state.
95 companies of CAPF to maintain law and order
A total of around 67,000 police personnel have been mobilized for election duty in Haryana.
95 companies of Central Armed Police Forces have been deployed in every nook and corner of the state as a part of special security arrangement during polls. In addition, 33340 state police personnel, 11750 home guards volunteers, 8063 Special Police Officers and 5788 police trainees are on poll duty to ensure tight vigil and security across the state.
Senior Police officers including 6 IGPs, 1 DIG and 12 SPs alongwith additional forces have also been deputed in different districts.