Dalits, who comprise a substantial 32 per cent of the population in Punjab and close to 40 per cent in the Doaba belt, will dictate the electoral fortunes of political parties in the high-voltage State Assembly polls.
Punjab’s Dalit population, which is highest in the country, remains under focus of all political parties during the election time. As Dalits don’t make a homogenous community in Punjab, there has been a shift in their political allegiance and voting patterns in the last few elections. BSP, considered the proprietor of the Dalit vote bank, has remained a non-entity in Punjab with its vote share declining from 16.32 per cent in 1992 to 4.29 per cent in 2012 Assembly polls, when the party even failed to open its account.
Political observers feel that before the BSP came into Punjab political scene, the Congress benefitted from the leaderless Dalit community in the State, however, the SAD had also managed to make inroads into the Dalit vote bank in last Assembly polls.
With Punjab witnessing three-cornered contest between SAD-BJP combine, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party this time, all the political parties are going all-out to woo Dalit voters as assembly polls inch closer. While the SAD-BJP and Congress have announced a slew to populist schemes to woo Dalit voters, the AAP has played a masterstroke by releasing party’s ‘Dalit manifesto’ and also, announcing to give post of deputy Chief Minister to a Dalit, if party forms the next government in Punjab.
Political experts feel that AAP, with its party symbol “broom” has an edge over other political parties in these elections with Dalit voters considering them as a potential political force against traditional players like SAD-BJP and Congress.
Apart from facing strong anti-incumbency factor, the ruling SAD-BJP has to do a lot of explaining on the issues of atrocities on dalits, the issue which has been raised by the opposition time and again. On the other hand, the Congress, which hopes to gain due to ten years of anti-incumbency against the Akalis, also fears of anti-Akali vote spilt due to presence of AAP in Punjab.
“The Dalit voters are not a homogenous community. In Majha and Malwa belt, there are more Sikh Dalits while in Doaba, there are a majority of non-Sikh Dalits. In the last few elections, it has been seen that they have not voted for a particular political party but rather voted strategically,” said Jagrup Singh Sekhon, Professor and Head, Department of Political Science, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar while talking to The Pioneer.
Prof Sekhon said, “Before BSP came into the Punjab election scene, Dalits were a Congress vote bank in 1980-90s. But as BSP had a little success in the state, the Dalit voters had been turning to other parties in the past elections.”
“As per our survey, the Congress’ vote share of Hindu Dalits have witnessed decline while SAD’s vote share witnessed increase in the last assembly election. This time, AAP, definitely has an edge over the Congress and SAD-BJP combine as they have come up with a separate Dalit manifesto. AAP is likely to do well in Malwa belt,” he said.
In Punjab, Doaba region has a huge share of Dalit voters while there are 34 constituencies out of a total of 117, which are reserved as SC constituencies.
Prof Ashutosh Kumar, Department of Political Science, Panjab University said, “last time, Akalis were able to get Dalit vote due to populist schemes like Atta Dal scheme, Mai Bhago bicycle scheme among others. But, this time being a triangular electoral contest, the SAD-BJP faces a tough challenge to attract the Dalit votes again.”
The SAD-BJP combine had stormed to power in Punjab for a second consecutive term in 2012 assembly polls.
Prof Ashutosh said, “AAP is likely to get Dalit votes in some areas of Punjab as Dalit youth considers them as an alternative political force. From meeting family of BSP founder Kanshi Ram last year to releasing a separate Dalit manifesto, AAP’s convenoe Arvind Kejriwal had been giving special attention to woo the Dalit voters.”
“Dalits in Punjab are followers of deras and babas, who are also being approached by the political parties for support during the election season. The Dera Sacha Sauda followers had in 2007 supported the Congress candidates in Malwa region which led to a major loss to the SAD. This time also, deras will play key role in deciding which way the Dalit voters would go,” he added.
“From Doaba belt, many Dalit are working in Gulf countries and AAP seems to have been attracting the Dalit NRI youth. While Dalit appears to go in favour of AAP, the elder Dalit population is likely to go with Congress this time,” said Professor Aswini Kumar Nanda, Population Research Centre, Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development.
Prof Nanda said, “While Akalis announced many welfare schemes for the community, the atrocities against the community in past 10 years and domination of power by Jat Sikhs, is likely to go against them in coming elections.”