The By-poll result for Baroda Assembly seat in Haryana may not have any significance in the stability of the BJP-JJP government in the state nor will it affect the strength of the respective parties in the assembly but it is expected to have far-reaching impact on the politics of the state in the medium to long run.
Despite a spirited campaign by top leaders, BJP candidate and Olympic medalist Yogeshwar Dutt was routed by over 10,000 votes by the Congress nominee Indu Raj Narwal in a constituency dominated by the Jats—the dominant caste of the region.
Political precedence and electoral behavior of the past suggests that candidates from the ruling party or coalition have an edge in By-poll and they win two times out of three. Even in the By-poll in different states this time round, the ruling parties or coalitions in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Odisha had it easy and they won handsomely without any hiccups. But Baroda by-poll proved to be different as the combined might of BJP-JJP could not consolidate enough to get victory for Dutt, the Olympian who was defeated in the 2019 Assembly polls as well.
Interestingly, the margin of defeat of Dutt only increased in his second electoral outing. He was defeated by around 4800 votes in 2019 assembly polls by Congress candidate Shri Krishan Hooda. This time, the margin has doubled to over 10,600 votes. What could be a matter of concern is the fact that in 2019, the JJP and BJP fought bitterly against each other, this time round they fought in an alliance but still lost by a bigger margin.
The by-polls were held in the background of the farmers’ agitation in Punjab and Haryana against the three central laws. Congress has been hammering the point that the laws are against the interests of the farmers and the regime of Minimum Support Price (MSP) has been threatened by the new laws. BJP, on the other hand, has been repeatedly stressing that these laws are for the benefit of farming communities and are set to increase rural prosperity by giving more money in the hands of the tillers.
As Baroda is largely a rural constituency with dominant Jats in a position to determine the political outcome, the result seems to clearly suggest that the farming community is not yet convinced if the farm laws are for their favour. They have rejected the arguments of the BJP-JJP leadership forcing the alliance partners to have a rethink on the way forward. Of course, there is no election in the state in the near future and the earliest could be in 2024 May when general elections are scheduled and BJP-JJP could perhaps get enough time to make a course correction. Alliance or not, BJP will have to woo the farming community back in general and Jats in particular if it wants to repeat or want to be close to its spectacular performance of a perfect 10 in the next Lok Sabha polls.
BJP strategists are saying that Baroda had always remained a Congress stronghold and the result should be seen in that context.
The seat fell vacant in April following the death of sitting Congress MLA Shri Krishna Hooda, who had won it three times in a row in the 2009, 2014 and 2019 assembly polls. It is adjacent to Garhi Sampla-Kiloi, represented by Congress strongman and two-term chief minister of the state, Bhupinder Singh Hooda.
Another question which would emerge at this point is the winning potential of the BJP-JJP as an alliance and will they stick together for the next round of elections.
The alliance was formed after BJP won 40 of the 90 assembly seats in the 2019 polls and needed a post poll partner to give a stable government after fighting bitterly against each other. Though the two parties formed a post elections alliance, many in the JJP have been openly voicing concerns and have repeatedly raised the issue of three central farm laws to embarrass Deputy chief minister Dushyant Chautala. The result of Baroda suggests that JJP has not and may not be able to transfer its votes to BJP. It could not do so in the only electoral test which it had after the 2019 assembly polls.
The message of Baroda by-poll is also clear for the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), the parent party of JJP, led by Om Prakash Chautala and his elder son Abhay Chautala.
The people of Baroda this time and earlier the state in 2019 have made it clear that JJP is the torch-bearer of the legacy of former Deputy Prime Minister Chaudhary Devi Lal.
Not surprising that if there is one person who has a place in the victory podium besides the winning candidate Indu Raj Narwal, it is Leader of Opposition in the state—Bhupinder Singh Hooda. He not only managed to retain his family pocket borough but also fanned the anti-farm laws feelings to his electoral advantage. At present, he has no challenger in the state Congress and this unchallenged reign is likely to continue till the next elections.