A report by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has taken the force out of Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Badal’s claims of making Punjab a power surplus by the year-end.
Quoting statistics, the CEA’s load Generation Balance Report (lGBR) for 2013-14 indicated that the State ranks first among the power deficit States, and fifth in terms of power shortage in peak load hours - indicating that the situation is likely to worsen in the coming times.
The lGBR report, regarding anticipated power supply position for the coming year in the country, indicated that Punjab would face an overall power shortage of 19.7 per cent in 2013-14, and 25.6 per cent power deficit in peak load hours - totally in contrast to Sukhbir’s claims.
Interestingly, the overall power shortage during 2012-13 was 5.3 per cent, and 24 per cent power deficit in peak load hours.
Unveiling the state’s new industrial policy, Sukhbir made it clear that industries would not suffer because of power shortage and the state would be power-surplus by December-end this year. Also, Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal has assured the state’s farmers to supply sufficient power during paddy and cotton season.
On the other hand, considering the projections in the report, their claims came out to be distant reality, at least as of now.
The seriousness with which the reports should be taken can be gauged from the fact that the estimates of energy requirement, energy availability, and peak demand during 2012-13 were more or less real during the year. CEA had predicted 18.3 per cent shortage in Punjab, against the actual energy shortage of 5.3 per cent owing to lower energy requirements.
CEA’s lGBR report is an annual report by the Union Power Ministry giving the information about the power supply position enabling the states and the utilities to plan their power supply and demand to minimize the energy and peak shortages.
The predictions regarding the power scenario have been made considering various factors - availability of fuel, various stations in operation, availability of water at hydo power stations and upcoming power generation units in states.
The report projected that the state would face an overall shortage of 10,031 million units (MUs) in 2013-14, against the requirement of 50,850 MUs and availability of 40,819 MUs. In peak load hours, the state is expected to face shortage of 3125 mega watt (MW), against the requirement of 12,200 MW and availability of 9075 MW.
The report also anticipated that there would be 43.4 per cent power shortage during the month of November, followed by 41.5 per cent in February, and 26.5 per cent in December during 2013-14. Contrarily, the previous year witnessed 6.2 per cent shortage in November, 1.9 per cent, and 3.3 per cent in February and December.
The maximum shortage was in the months of July with 11.3 per cent, followed by August and June with 9.3 per cent and 7.1 per cent shortage.
In terms of peak load hours, the state would be over 25 per cent power deficit in the months of June, July, August, November, and December, and more than 20 per cent in January and February.
The report indicated that there would be huge gap in peak demand and availability during the paddy season,
officially starting from June 10. June would have maximum shortage with 27 per cent, followed by August with 26.6 per cent, December with 25.9 per cent, and July with 25.6 per cent.
The power situation in Punjab is harsh considering the delay in making the three much-hyped thermal plants operational. While Goindwal Sahib thermal power plant was delayed by more than three months, Talwandi Sabo thermal plant is expected to be operational in January next year.
Ironically, the report anticipated commissioning of one unit each at upcoming Goindwal Sahib and Talwandi Sabo thermal plants in June 2013 and January 2014, respectively. In view of the delay, the power shortage is likely to be more than the CEA projections with paddy season nearing.
The state government is resting its claims on three thermal plants coming up at Goindwal Sahib with two units of 270 MW each, Rajpura with two units of 700 MW each, and Talwandi Sabo with three units of 660 MW each.