The lok Sabha elections in Punjab would test the seven years of anti-incumbency of Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP Government in the State and 10 years of anti-incumbency of the Congress-led UPA Government in the Centre.
Anti-incumbency is, in fact, emerging as a decisive factor in the polls this time, with performance of the Congress at the national-level and the Akalis-BJP at the State-level being deliberated upon in Punjab.In 2012, when the State went to Assembly polls, the general impression was that the Akali-BJP may not succeed in making a comeback. Combating anti-incumbency was virtually considered impossible.
Attribute it to wrong allocation of tickets by the Congress or satisfactory performance by the Akali-BJP, the Badals were back in the saddle. But this time, indications are that both the major political parties in the State may have to fight back to tackle the issue.
While the Congress is accepting that there is an anti-incumbency factor against it after 10 years in power, which is quite natural, it has all the confidence to defy the same after the party has adopted the strategy to make its senior leaders enter the poll fray.
Besides, the Congress leaders believed that the anti-incumbency, which was quite high against the Congress-led UPA Government, has declined to some extent in the past few months.“During its regime, the UPA has done great work for all sections of society. So many laws have been made, especially the Food Security Act, land Acquisition Act, which has proved a boon for the people, and farmers respectively,” leader of Opposition in Punjab Vidhan Sabha and Congress candidate from Ferozepur, Sunil Jakhar told The Pioneer.
“And here in Punjab, people have lot of anger against the ruling coalition. There is no rule of law, Cabinet Ministers are facing criminal or corruption cases, Government is doing nothing for the poor, and employees who are observing strike every day… Congress is going to defy anti-incumbency at the national level, if there is any, and return to power like it did in 2009,” said Jakhar.
“The anti-incumbency against SAD-BJP is stronger in Punjab, that against the Congress. And with party’s decision field senior leaders is going to benefit the party a lot,” said another senior Congress leader.
For checking the anti-incumbency factor in the State, Congress has shifted some of its sitting MPs, including the Union Minister, against whom it felt that there is strong anti-incumbency. In Hoshiarpur, the party replaced the sitting MP and Union Minister of State for Family Welfare and Health Santosh Chowdhary with Jalandhar’s sitting MP Mohinder Singh Kaypee, against whom there are reports of anti-incumbency factor getting stronger.
In a similar way, party’s young MP from Sri Anandpur Sahib Ravneet Singh Bittu has been shifted to ludhiana considering his grandfather — Punjab’s former Chief Minister late Beant Singh’s home constituency ‘Payal’ under ludhiana. Bittu was earlier re-nominated from Anandpur Sahib, but sensing wave against him, the party has fielded senior leader and former Minister Ambika Soni.
If feedback from the ground is to be believed, the party may manage to retain its previous figure of eight seats in Punjab. And all credit goes to the party’s tactical move to field its top guns that sent a clear message that the party is very serious about polls.
After starting badly with some candidates like Union Information and Broadcasting Minister Manish Tewari choosing not to contest the elections, besides State party chief Partap Singh Bajwa and former Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh too showing reluctance, Congress’ fortunes took a turn with big guns entering the fray.
On the other hand, the ruling alliance believed that anti-incumbency is so strong against the Congress that it, in no way, can match the SAD-BJP’s developmental issues. The ruling coalition has all along been denying “strongly” that there is any anti-incumbency factor working against them.
“Our work speaks volume about us. In every field, there is development. Be it industries, power, education, health, road infrastructure, and what not … Industries are coming here, we have become power-surplus, we have best network of roads, big hospitals like Tata Memorial, Max are in Punjab … people voted for our development in 2012, and they will vote for us this time too,” said SAD secretary Daljeet Singh Cheema.
Conversely, the SAD’s ally in Punjab, BJP has admitted that Congress has reasons to be confident in Punjab after it fielded senior leaders in the State.
“There is nothing certain as of now. In urban areas, people have resentment against the ruling combine because of taxes and lack of facilities, and trading community too have issues that could not be addressed properly. And to top it all, Congress has fielded its top leadership making things all the more problematic for us,” a senior BJP leader told The Pioneer, requesting anonymity.
Indications are that anti-incumbency factor in some of the constituencies, such as Amritsar is stronger against ruling combine than against the rivals at the Centre. Taking the same into account, the BJP finally managed to convince its senior national leader and three-time Rajya Sabha MP Arun Jaitley from Amritsar — a move that has boosted the morale of the entire SAD-BJP cadre.
Alarmed, “reluctant” Capt Amarinder was made to enter the poll fray. According to the feedback the BJP is getting from the field, Amritsar appears to be a battlefield hard to conquer. Moreover, things do not appear very rosy for the Congress in Gurdaspur and Bathinda, where Bajwa and People’s Party of Punjab chief Manpreet Badal, are facing a tough fight from three-time MP Vinod Khanna and sitting MP Harsimrat Kaur Badal, respectively.
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