Amethi-Raebareli models versus Gujarat model

The electorate of the country seems to have made a decision and there is little doubt left that Congress is on its way out and NDA almost ready to occupy the office space of Prime Minister at South Block along with the ministerial buildings in lutyen’s Delhi.

As the Congress is headed for its worst ever defeat in the last 62 years, BJP is headed for its best ever in the 34 years of its formation after 1980. It must indeed be gratifying for those involved in the formation of BJP after the fiasco of the Janata Party that from two seats in 1984 versus 410 seats of the Congress, it is headed to form the next Government in the Centre. 

Demoralised workers of the Congress versus enthusiastic workers of the BJP tell the story in various parts of the country, which are yet to go to polls. Despite 10 years of rule, the party workers and candidates of the ruling party do not know how to approach the electorate and with what. Despite a manifesto, they do not know what promises to make and to which section. They are putting up a brave face even though they know what is in store for them.  

Sometimes, I am amazed at the way Congress is brazenly mocking at the Gujarat model of development. Agreed that the Gujarat model is for the big Capital but at the end of the day, it has generated employment  opportunities, increased the GDP of the State, enhanced tax collection and general prosperity with several ancillary units coming up to supplement the bigger industries. Of course, Gujarat was always a developed State and Narendra Modi perhaps played no more a role than that of a catalyst. The Gujarat model may also have its limitations and cannot be implemented in States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal where local economy has to be factored in for any scheme. But to out rightly reject it, the way Congress is doing, is simply amusing to say the least.   

Now, compare it with the Amethi and Raebareli models of development, patented by the Congress. Here, I have travelled extensively and amazed at the backwardness of the region despite electing Congress Prime Ministers, Congress presidents and vice-presidents since decades. Remember, Indira Gandhi represented Raebareli while her son Sanjay Gandhi and later Rajiv Gandhi represented Amethi. The same is the situation now, with mother-son representing the two constituencies — Raebareli by Congress president and Amethi by its vice-president.

All you see here in vast rural landscape of the two constituencies are remnants of petrol pumps. The party and its Government only allotted petrol pumps, lPG dealership and kerosene depots to their followers over the years. The concentration is so dense that there are petrol pumps and lPG dealers every 2-km in the two constituencies — something unheard of anywhere in rural India. In the twin constituencies, primarily rural, the vehicle penetration is so low that a lot of these petrol pumps have either closed down or exist just for the sake of it as many cater to not more than 2-3 vehicles a day. So this is the model of development of Amethi and Raebareli.

Then in all these decades when the two constituencies of UP have been electing Prime Ministers, Congress presidents and de facto Prime Ministers, all they have got are a few showpiece like a flying academy here or a footwear institute there, a railway coach factory now and a hospital. Some private sector investment did come after Rajiv Gandhi won in 1984 and became Prime Minister but then the industrialists got land at a throwaway price and wanted other concessions from the then Congress Government. They set up temporary shades, started some manufacturing in huge gated and walled complexes and gradually abandoned them. All of them are now firmly closed even as some are being used as prime real estate.  

In short, that is Amethi and Raebareli models of development where power always plays truant, you have to walk a considerable distance to get to a cyber café or eat a hygienic meal in a hotel. You will be lucky to find a decent hotel with power back up and without mosquitoes for company. The roads remain bumpy and the situation worsens in the monsoons.

Whenever I visited the two constituencies in the past, I always wondered what have the Gandhis done for the area to command absolute loyalty of the voters. Except for the Sanjay Gandhi Hospital in Munshiganj (Amethi) where the health service is top class, there is nothing modern in the entire area. You do not have to be a statistician or a sociologist to map the backwardness of the area. It speaks loud and clear as soon as you enter the two constituencies. A local Congress worker once told me the secret behind Sanjay Gandhi Hospital. Rahul Gandhi stays in its guesthouse whenever he visits the constituency and that is the reason it gets some attention and patients are taken care off through a trust.

This makes me wonder, if you cannot even improve the lifestyle of the people who have been voting you for decades and are loyal followers, what will you do for the countryIJ You have been taking the people of Amethi and Raebareli for granted, not for a year or two but for decades — four decades. Paternalism of the royal style is not going to help here. This is what you have been doing for decades, make a flash visit, appear in a wedding function, wave from your SUV, eat a lunch on the roadside for photo-op, sit on the ground for a while and then disappear to the comfort of your home in New Delhi. People of the country have seen through this façade.

The Amethi and Raebareli models glorify poverty, teach you how to live with minimum resources and also tell you not to aspire for anything — jobs, better education, modern life style, electricity, etc. I would take the risk of being termed cynical, but perhaps there is a vested interest is keeping the people in the trap of poverty to command their loyalty. It is like the royal families of the country who still command respect in the small areas which they ruled decades ago. Rooted in poverty and superstition, they still revere the descendants of the Rajas and Maharajas out of habit.

But gradually old habits are changing and this is discernible on the ground. For the first time, in 2014, the Gandhi family has perhaps become a liability for the Congress in many places. There are perhaps only two States where Congress is holding on its own against the onslaught of the NDA and the regional parties this time. These are Assam and Punjab. While in Assam, Tarun Gogoi is the name instead of the Gandhi family, in Punjab each Congress candidate is holding on to the battlefield without the baggage of the Gandhi family. In fact, the saying in Punjab is that you should avoid a rally of a member of the first family of the Congress in your constituency to improve your prospects.

The bigger question now is that will the Gandhi family take the blame if Congress is reduced to double digits in the lok Sabha electionIJ

As Rahul Gandhi has taken over the party, his stamp is visible everywhere and is the de facto prime ministerial candidate of his party, he will have to be brave and candid enough to take on the responsibility. If the Congress fares well despite the odds, Rahul has to be given credit and if the party fails badly and reduced in the double digits, you cannot merely blame Manmohan Singh for that and emerge unscathed.

After May 16, Rahul Gandhi needs to reinvent himself and the Congress. The old idioms and phrases of governance, with which he is rooted, is not working in this age and era. Despite being relatively young and two decades younger than Narendra Modi, he could not make a dent in the youth segment and first time voters. He will now have to think what will his role be as a leader of Opposition and how to use that role to strengthen the party and himself for the next battle in 2019.

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