Aam Aadmi Party’s jhaadoo has made a clean sweep in Punjab assembly elections, as per the predictions made by all the opinion polls on Monday evening. Against the initial predictions of Punjab likely to witness a hung verdict, AAP is predicted to make a sweeping victory in the 117-member House.
AAP, which contested the second assembly election in Punjab, emerged as a clear winner in all of the exit polls, pushing the ruling Congress to a distant second with farmers’ outfit — Samyukt Samaj Morcha (SSM) — failing in even opening its account. Even as AAP’s seat share varied across various surveys, seven exit polls predicted its clear victory.
However, a few exit polls also forecast a hung assembly in Punjab, while giving a clear edge to the AAP.
If these exit poll predictions come true on March 10 — the day of the counting of votes, the two-election-old AAP would be forming the Government in Punjab for the first time. Also, the comedian-turned-politician Bhagwant Mann may take over Punjab’s reigns.
According to the surveys, the Congress party, which returned to power in 2017 with a thumping two-third majority, will finish on the second spot, followed by the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which contested with a new alliance partner Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). SAD’s old ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), along with its new coalition partners — former Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Lok Congress and Akali stalwart Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa’s SAD (Sanyukt) — are also predicted to have failed in reaching the double-digit figure.
After SAD severed ties with the BJP over the issue of three contentious farm laws (now repealed), BJP fought over 65 seats in Punjab for the first time, in two new alliance partners. In fact, BJP was not even in Punjab’s ballot game till about two months before the elections. But after indulging in extensive political churning in the state, forging new alliances, and reaching out to the “influential” Deras at the last moment, BJP was said to have managed in consolidating its position in the state.
As the results would be out on March 10, the factors that worked for and against different political players would also be clear from the vote shares they get.
As per Today’s Chanakya vote projection, AAP’s vote share will increase to 45 percent, while Congress is expected to get 23 percent votes, SAD 16 percent, with BJP increasing its vote share to nine percent. The survey has projected the vote share of other players to seven percent.
“The boxes (referring to sealed EVMs) will say what is going to happen. Wait for March 10,” said Punjab Chief Minister and Congress chief ministerial candidate Charanjit Singh Channi reacting to the exit polls showing AAP forming government in Punjab.
Reacting, AAP’s CM face Bhagwant Mann said: “We are getting more than 80 seats. They (referring to the rest of the parties that contested Punjab elections) can sit down and calculate among themselves.”
Senior Congress leader Sunil Jakhar, reacting to the exit polls, said: “Let’s just wait for three more days as the situation will be clear on March 10.”
WHAT THE SURVEYS SAY
News24-Today's Chanakya Exit poll predicted AAP getting 100 (plus, minus 11) seats and Congress 10 (plus, minus seven) seats in the 117-member House. It predicted SAD getting six (plus, minus five) seats and BJP one (plus, minus one) seat.
As per India Today-Axis My India exit poll, AAP is predicted to win 76-90 seats in Punjab, Congress 19-31, SAD and its allies seven to 11 and BJP and its allies something between one and four seats.
The ABP News-C Voter predicted that AAP would get 51-61 seats, Congress 22-28 seats, SAD 20-26 seats, and BJP seven to 13 seats.
The ETG Research survey predicted AAP getting 70-75 seats, Congress 27-33 seats, SAD 7 to 13 and BJP three to seven seats. As per the Times Now-Veto exit polls, AAP is predicted to get 70 seats, Congress 22, SAD 19, and BJP five seats.
According to P MarQ survey, AAP is predicted to get 62 to 70 seats, Congress 23 to 31, SAD 16-24 and BJP one to three seats. The News-X Polstrat predicted AAP getting 56-61 seats, Congress 24-29, SAD 22-26, and BJP one to six seats.
India News-Jan ki Baat said that AAP is predicted to get 60-84 seats, Congress 18-31, SAD 12-19, and BJP three to seven. As per the Zee News-Design Boxed exit polls, AAP may form a majority with 52-61 seats, with the Congress projected to get 26-33 seats, SAD is forecasted to win 24-32 seats, and BJP and its allies three to seven seats.