The entire world knows a few things about the US President Donald Trump. First, he seeks attention and praise like a pampered baby. Second, he becomes a spoilt brat when his demands are ignored. Third, he is the most powerful person in the world whose words and deeds can change geopolitics.
All three traits are in full display as Trump issues threat after threat to India. This time, there is a threat of 50 per cent tariffs on Indian exports because India is “buying oil from Russia and selling it for a profit in the open market”. Now, India is at par with Brazil in terms of tariff, and the latter too happens to be another country that faces the wrath of Trump. Not to mention South Africa which is accused by the US president of systematically persecuting and murdering whites. For Trump, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, a former friend, is enemy number one this week. Mercifully, the disdainful manner that Beijing responded to the Trump threats and tariffs ensured the school yard bully in Washington piped down.
When powerful people talk and act like irresponsible bullies, they create ripples that spread far and wide. Often, they end up promoting what they intend to prevent. In this instance, all the tantrums being thrown by Trump are almost certainly encouraging the original members of the BRICS group, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, to step up economic and trade cooperation, apart from the usual diplomatic shenanigans.
Brazil’s President Luiz Lula openly urged the BRICS members to unite, and collectively take on the US. When Trump ordered Lula to talk to him, the latter retorted that he will talk to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. As students of history know, it all boils down to money at the end of the day. A few weeks ago, when Modi attended the BRICS summit in Brazil, Trump had threatened to impose tariffs on BRICS member states as they seemed to threaten the supremacy of the dollar. No one really cared to respond to the hectoring.
Look at China and India buying energy from Russia. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Indian energy imports from Russia have been worth close to $250 billion. In the process, India has saved about $50 billion because of huge and lucrative discounts. Chinese energy imports from Russia have been considerably higher. Which sane country or leadership in the world would sacrifice its economic interests for moral posturing?
Look also at the hard realities of economic size. With a GDP of more than $28 trillion, the United States is indeed the most powerful economy. There is little doubt it can inflict pain on others, including the BRICS members. But do look at the latter’s economies too: China is at about $18 trillion, India at about $4.2 trillion, Russia $2.2 trillion, Brazil $2.2 trillion and South Africa at about $400 billion. The combined GDP of BRICS nations matches that of the US. Add the newly inducted members to the grouping, and it surpasses it.
Under normal circumstances, it would be difficult to envisage BRICS turning into a “power” bloc like NATO. There are many differences and disputes, particularly between India and China. Yet, by acting as a bull in a china shop, Trump may end up promoting BRICS. Leaders of these nations might contemplate the following: economic interests are paramount, and akin to national security. Why not temporarily bury our differences and present a united front to Trump and his circus? It is a matter of time.
The potential scope for trade and economic cooperation is so immense that it defies imagination. Among the BRICS nations, while America remains the biggest market, it is no longer critical for economic survival. A country like Vietnam, whose exports to the US constitute 30 per cent of GDP cannot afford to anger Trump. But for China, Russia, India and Brazil, exports to the US are less than even 2% of GDP. And they can look at other markets. Silly Billy, Trump, the tantrum throwing bully could end up promoting BRICS.
The author has worked for leading media houses, authored two books, and is now Executive Director, C Voter Foundation