Manasi Sahoo keeps adjusting her mangalsutra (a necklace worn by Hindu women to denote she is married) during a video call. Educated till class V in a village school, where the teacher was mostly absent, she looks askance at her sister-in-law, Putuli, when asked if she understands the word tariff. Both work in a shrimp-processing factory, which is located on the border of Kendrapada and Balasore districts in Odisha. Till last month, the two had not the faintest idea of who Donald Trump is, and what his trade tactics are. Now, they know and fear him as some foreign and alien evil.
Since the first week of August, rumours and whispers were whirling and swirling about a possible closure of the processing plant where Manasi and Putuli work. According to their limited understanding, Trump fights with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and is punishing India. Despite being die-hard Modi supporters, Manasi and Putuli are a tad disappointed with him. “Surely, Modiji can do something about the situation? He always does something. But this time, even he cannot help us,” says Manasi, who can speak Odiya and knows some dialogues from Hindi movies and web series.
It will be a catastrophe for Manasi’s family and many others if the shrimp-processing plant closes. Together, the sister-sister-in-law duo earns almost Rs 25,000 a month. Manasi’s husband works in Coimbatore, the second-largest city in Tamil Nadu, and sends home Rs 15,000 a month. However, Putuli’s husband is addicted to liquor; his earnings are wayward as he keeps losing jobs. Staying in a kind of joint family, both women have two children each, who go to school. Manasi’s elder daughter, now in Class VII, has ambitions of becoming fluent in English and getting a higher education.
Six months ago, a benefactor sold the daughter a second-hand tablet for Rs 7,500, which she uses obsessively. This life, with multiple incomes and some comfort, is likely to go up in dust and smoke if the 50 per cent tariff imposed on Indian shrimp exports forces the owners of the processing plant to take drastic measures. At present, the purchase orders from the US are slowly drying up. Although the owner of this small plant did not wish to be named, identified or quoted, he hinted that there were serious chances of the plant shutting down, at least temporarily, by the end of September.
Fear and anxiety gnaw at Manasi and Putuli, as they realise that the worst may be in the offing. October 2 is Vijadashami, and locals celebrate Durga Puja with fervour and gaiety. New clothes are mandatory. There is certainty before the festive season. For now, Manasi has decided not to spend money on anything except for the necessities. Her children are, of course, terribly disappointed. But they understand that things are not so good.
According to the Government data, shrimp exports from Odisha were valued at more than $500 million in 2024. In the larger world of global trade, the figure may seem like a pittance. After all, total exports from India, including services, were valued at more than $850 billion in the same year. But small though the Odisha number is, it conceals the disruption to close to two million families. More than half a million workers, like Manasi, work in the shrimp-processing plants. Another half-a-million or so work in shrimp farms. An additional half-a-million or so earn a living through connected segments such as transportation, packaging and storage.
Over the last two decades, this shrimp ecosystem has sprung up in most of the coastal districts of Odisha, ranging from Ganjam, which borders Andhra Pradesh to Balasore, which borders West Bengal. For the millions involved and dependent on this ecosystem, the Rs 10,000 to Rs 12,000 a month each that they earn is a lifeline for most families. With more than one earning member, normally husband-wife and joint-family members, they can collectively earn enough to lead a comfortable life, and offer aspirations to their children. Minus this source, they have minimal sources of livelihood. Their lives will be disrupted, and they may have to survive on the Government doles, through the various central and State welfare schemes.
India is the world’s second-largest aquaculture producer after China. The country’s shrimp exports are significant, “with frozen shrimp being the primary product, contributing the majority of the marine product’s export value.” The US is India’s largest market, and shipments showed a double-digit growth in the first four months of 2025. However, there is a ray of hope, as exports to the European Union grew by 25 per cent in the same period. There is an opportunity to substitute US exports with the EU. But it will take time, and one is not sure how much quantity Europe can absorb. In addition, Indians earn a low average value, and a large portion of the high-value and value-added products are sold to the US and Canada.
In the immediate term, there are more concerns. Aditya Dash, CEO of Ayana Seafoods, came back after higher education in the United States, and understands politics, geopolitics and diplomacy. He offers a bleak perspective. Although it smells of a conspiracy theory, according to him, there are political and business interests within the US administration that are keen to import shrimp from Ecuador. The tariff on imports from this country is 10 per cent.
There is a feeling among the more aware individuals involved in the trade that the US can impose non-tariff barriers by declaring Indian shrimp to be unsafe, unhygienic and unhealthy.
For aspirational women like Manasi, who are first-generation escapees from poverty, this is beyond comprehension. She only knows that her dreams are on the verge of being shattered.