It is about the workers. The US President Donald Trump wants less foreigners and more Americans to be employed in America. It is about investments. Trump wants nations that wish to have cheaper access to the American markets to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in America. It is about markets. While giving easier access to foreigners to sell in America, the US president wants reciprocal benefits for American goods. It is a politico-economic gamble. The three-pronged strategy has practical problems. It is tough to balance either the process or end-goals. The dice is loaded in favour of the US. The other nations are being forced to sit at the table.
Let us start with the workers. Recently hundreds of South Korean citizens were arrested in Georgia, US. The immigration officials claimed that they were illegals working at a construction site of an electric battery plant, which was co-owned by two Korean giants, Hyundai Motor and LG Energy. Similarly, techie Indians working in the US on H-1B visas face restrictions, which may intensify in the future. South Korea expressed alarm, and the Indian lobby is fighting hard. Obviously, a friend like South Korea is unhappy, and an ally-turned-enemy like India is incensed by these moves. Trump’s idea is to stop illegal entries, and reduce legal foreign workers.
In effect, the president hopes to substitute foreigners with Americans so that the locals find more employment opportunities. Let the illegal foreigners leave, and let us reduce the number of legals, seems to be his motto. After the Hyundai operation, he wrote on Truth Social, “I am hereby calling on all Foreign Companies investing in the United States to please respect our Nation’s Immigration Laws.” It is an admirable pursuit. India too is trying to initiate action against illegals, especially from Bangladesh. But as the experiences in both the nations show, such decisions impact the legals, and create anxieties among potential honest immigrants.
As is usual with Trump, nothing is simple and straightforward. There are twists, and knots within the tangles. He is bothered about legal foreigners, who are trained by Americans on the job, and end up taking the latter’s jobs. This is what the US officials feel is happening with the H-1B visa regime. An Indian arrives on the visa, trains with an American, who is later sacked. Trump wants the opposite. In the Hyundai case, he declared on Truth Social, “Your Investments are welcome, and we encourage you to LEGALLY bring your very smart people, with great technical talent, to build World Class products, and we will make it quickly and legally possible for you to do so. What we ask in return is that you hire and train American workers.”
He went further, and suggested that special foreign manufacturing experts can walk in to specifically train Americans. So, not only will the number of foreigners reduce, some of them will come to ensure that the local jobs remain with the Americans. It is a reverse skill transfer. The browns, blacks and yellows will help the whites. Earlier, for an entire century, the Americans and Europeans visited the developing world in Asia and Latin America, and poorer parts in Africa, to train people and impart knowledge. Now, Indians, with their math abilities, and South Koreans, with their manufacturing prowess, will help the largest economy in the world.
Now, let us look at investments. Nations will get the advantage of low tariffs for their goods to enter America, only if they bring in huge sums. Japan promised hundreds of billions of dollars. South Korea had to hike its figure from $350 billion to $500 billion in exchange for a 15 per cent tariff. Earlier, Trump had warned that the duty may be 25 per cent, as was the case with India initially. However, the fine print of the US-Korea deal is still being discussed. India, which has no money to put on the trade-poker table, is saddled with a 50 per cent tariff which, for pharmaceuticals, may go up to 200 per cent.
Money, in fact, is always on Trump’s radar, the astute businessman that he is. Forget that he went bankrupt a few times, and his tax dodging has become legendary. So are the business deals that his family has inked within months of him becoming the president for the second time. Bilateral trade, for Trump, is not just a means to rake in money through higher duties. It is a way to force other nations to build factories in the US. This links with the workers-related prong. More plants, more jobs, more American employees and, hopefully, less foreigners. To add spice to the recipe, the foreigners will train the Americans to secure the latter’s jobs.
Then, there is the third quid pro quo. Take away your workers, bring in goods at cheaper tariff, along with the money to set up plants to generate local jobs, and allow American goods to sell in your country. Open your markets, and minimise your tariff and non-tariff barriers. This is where India is stuck. It has goods to sell, but it does not want what America wishes to sell (agriculture and dairy products). As stated earlier, it does not have the hundreds of billions of dollars to wave at Trump. So, India gets the short shrift, compared to Japan, Europe and South Korea. However, China escapes because it has economic and geopolitical leverage over the US.
On the South Korea imbroglio, the president was asked if his economic goals clashed with his immigration agenda. Trump in his inimitable style sidetracked the issue. “They came through illegally. They came into our country. So, we have to do our job,” he responded. What he implied was: Come legally, train our workers, go away, bring in billions of dollars, give jobs to Americans, sell in America, and open your local markets so we can sell more there. It is a card game, where America holds the four aces. It is a chess game, where the opponent is deprived of the King and Queen before it begins.