Kerala, threshold of the southwestern monsoon into the Indian subcontinent, is presently in the middle of that season but it is already shuddering from apprehensions of a severe drought in the dry months of 2018 that may turn out to be worse than the one it had witnessed last summer thanks to the disturbing rate of rainfall deficit in the first lap of the season.
The State has just passed the halfway mark of the June-September southwestern monsoon but it has already – till Wednesday – experienced a rainfall deficit of 31 per cent. The shortfall of showers Kerala had suffered in the southwestern monsoon of 2016 was 34 per cent and that in the last October-December northeastern monsoon was 62 percent.
As farmers and ordinary people are alarmed by the inconsistency in monsoon activity, fear is growing that the rainfall deficit till now may not be offset even if it maintains the average performance in the remaining two months. As per the weathermen’s forecast at the start of the season, the State was to get normal rainfall this southwest monsoon season.
According to a scientist at the Thiruvananthapuram unit of the Indian Meteorological Department, the next ten days are crucial for rainfall sufficiency in the State. “Still there is no need to lose the hope of getting good rains in these two months. If that does not happen, there is bound to be a crisis,” he said.
Not even one district out of the total 14 in the State has received the expected normal rainfall this season. The northern mountainous district of Wayanad – as it had happened last year – is the worst hit. It has so far recorded a shortfall of 59 percent. Idukki, the other most forest-rich district, stands second in the list in terms of showers deficit – at 42 percent.
Major part of the hydro-electricity Kerala is consuming is coming from Idukki but reports from the district say that water levels in the hydel reservoirs there have not risen adequately and this may seriously affect the State’s power sector. According to officials of the Kerala State Electricity Board, water inflow to most hydel reservoirs is not at adequately strong.
Farmers fear that the shortfall in rainfall can hit their crops even when they struggling to overcome the devastation caused by the drought of last summer. “If the rains continue to betray us like this, we are going to see a deep crisis in the agriculture sector,” said Pappachan, a cardamom grower from Puliyanmala near Kattappana in Idukki district.
Shortfall in rainfall in last year’s monsoon and the subsequent drought had devastated paddy and other cultivations in Wayanad district and farmers there are now worried that they may have to face a similar situation once again. Environmentalists also are worried at the huge rainfall deficit recurring in the State’s forest-rich areas.
Of the total 1925 MM of rainfall the season should bring to the State normally, 1321 MM should have been brought by the June-July phase but the actual rainfall so far has only been 969 MM, showing a shortfall of 30.6 percent. Even if the State gets the expected 594 MM rainfall in the August-September lap, it may not suffice to offset the current deficit.
“If the weather conditions progress as they are presently, the State may not get the kind of rainfall we had expected this year at the beginning of the season,” said an IMD scientist. “let us hope that August and September will bring good rainfall,” he said.
If the northeastern monsoon also fails to bring good rains, the next summer could be worse than the last one, which had brought a drought that was unseen in the past several decades.
“Rainfall deficit seems to be showing a pattern in Kerala. In 2015, it was 26 percent and 34 percent last year. And what will it be this yearIJ” wonders environmentalist Ramesh Babu of Thrissur.