India Ratings and Research on Friday revised down India’s FY22 real GDP growth forecast to 10.1 per cent, from earlier projection of 10.4 per cent, citing the second wave of Covid-19 infections and slower pace of vaccination.
At a time when large parts of the country are experiencing tremendous pressure on medical infrastructure, the agency said it expects the second wave to start subsiding by mid-May.
Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank maintained its 10.5 per cent GDP growth estimate, but Governor Shaktikanta Das has flagged the rising cases as the biggest impediment to recovery.
Other brokerages and analysts have also been revising down their forecasts in the light of the second wave.
The economy is estimated to have contracted by 7.6 per cent in FY21.
India Ratings said the impact of the second wave will not be as disruptive as the first one, despite the daily case load touching three times of the first wave’s peak, as lockdowns are set to be localised ones.