The International Monetary Fund is set to join other downbeat analysts and cut the growth estimate for India “significantly”, its India-born chief economist Gita Gopinath said on Tuesday.
The Washington-based institution had come out with an estimate in October and will be reviewing the same next month in January, she said at the India Economic Conclave organised by Times Network.
A fall in consumption, lack of private investments and sluggish exports are being blamed for a slower GDP growth which slid to a six-year low of 4.5 per cent in September. The RBI and other watchers have done downward reviews of their growth forecast for India for FY2020.
Gopinath said India is the only emerging market which has thrown a surprise of this kind. “If you look at recent incoming data, we would be revising our numbers and come up with numbers in January, and it is likely to be a significant downward revision for India,” she said, refusing to share a number or even mention if it would be under 5 per cent.
The IMF in its October forecast had projected 6.1 per cent growth for India in 2019 and the same to go up to 7 per cent in 2020. She also sounded doubtful about the country achieving USD 5 trillion GDP target by FY2025, and chose to present her case arithematically.