Until recently, Ruchika (not her real name for obvious reasons, as we will see), a 24-year-old, was full of zest and confidence about her future. Suddenly, her ‘techie-H-1B-greenbacks’ dreams have turned into dust and rubble. She refuses to reveal her name, and insists that we talk on what is believed to be a safer, better-encrypted Telegram app. Like many Indians in America, she is not sure if WhatsApp and other calls are being monitored by the US agencies.
Recently, Ruchika finished her post-graduation in a technology field from a prestigious and famous American university. She even landed a job with a giant tech company there. A STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) student, she was on Cloud 9, and felt lucky and destined. Her career path was drawn up and ready. There was the H-1B visa on the cards, long hours of work for a few years, and an achievable, though distant, path to a Green Card.
Each year, as per the US rules, 65,000 non-American individuals, 70 per cent of them Indians, land up with an H-1B visa because of their versatility in math and tech skills. Another 20,000 similar visas are earmarked for foreigners (called aliens in the US), who have Master or PhD degrees in a STEM subject from an American university. Ruchika clearly fell into the latter category. Her potential employer was ready to sponsor the visa.
Not anymore. Like with trade, tariffs and investments, the Donald Trump administration has hammered the H-1B visa regime, which has been operational since the US Congress passed a special legislation to enable skilled “aliens” to work in the United States, with a wrecking ball. In front of the president, the US Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, announced that the country had decided to raise the H-1B visa fee to $1,00,000 per year per visa. Panic spread across Silicon Valley and India. Eager employers asked worried workers, who were outside the US at that time, to come back as they feared the latter’s H-1Bs would otherwise be cancelled.
Then, there was a clarification. The exorbitant fee would be a one-time expense for the companies and would not apply to the “aliens” who already had a visa. There is still some confusion as to what happens when an existing visa holder changes her job, and the new employer needs to re-sponsor the visa. Still, there were huge sighs of relief. But for youngsters like Ruchika, seeking their first jobs, it seemed like the end of the H-1B journey, even before it had begun. No company would pay $1,00,000 for a first-timer.
Throughout this fee shocker and confusion, another change was in the offing. For months, even years, since Trump’s first term, American policy-makers have sought to drastically change the visa regime. They want to get rid of the existing lottery system, where companies put in the applications, which are selected through a random-computerised mechanism, till the quota of 65,000 quota, and the 20,000 one, are exhausted. Instead, they want a selection in a more discretionary manner, which is based on wages.
Now, the wage-based system is ready to be implemented. The applicants will be listed in descending order according to their salaries. The ones with higher remuneration are at the top, followed by those with lower ones. The selections will happen from the top until the quota is exhausted. This mechanism prefers H-1B visa holders with high salaries. In effect, the US will open its immigration doors primarily for mid-level and senior professionals, who possibly earn more than $300,000 a year. In addition, it makes sense that an employer will willingly pay one-time $1,00,000 visa fees for someone who earns at least three or four times the amount.
There is complete mayhem. Dozens of immigration lawyers in the US have filed court cases against the arbitrary changes in H-1B visa rules. For the moment, though, Ruchika is down in the dumps. Unless she is very lucky, which is a rare possibility, her visa dream is over for now. She may try again, but it will be years later. Like most young Indians who study in the US, she chased the American dream the way ambitious and enterprising people do. It seems to be in vain.
Although the numbers are not clear, since the 1990s, when the H-1B regime came into effect, Indians have been the largest beneficiaries. Between 7,00,000 (plus 5,00,000 family members or beneficiaries) and close to two million Indians have found lucrative and high-skill jobs in the US. Apart from American tech firms, this migration powered the relentless rise of Indian IT firms. TCS, Wipro, Infosys, HCL and Cognizant are just a few names that became global software powerhouses, initially through onshoring (H-1B visas), then a hybrid onshore-offshore model, followed by outsourcing.
Yet, despite several changes to H-1Bs, the visas continue to be a push factor for Indians, largely due to the pull factor from clients, who wanted some form of an onshore presence at their sites in America. Two generations of Indians entered the US workforce. A few became CEOs of American tech-IT behemoths such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, IBM, Oracle and many more. Some of them became founders of start-ups and sold their firms for hundreds of millions of dollars. Indian-Americans cut new paths, and played key roles in California’s Silicon Valley over the past three decades.
But Ruchika’s life is not at a crossroads. If the new visa regime comes into effect, she has virtually no chance of getting an H-1B. A diehard optimist that she is, she has shifted her attention from the dollar signs to those in pounds or francs. Ruchika, who had a full study scholarship, is exploring other countries. India, too, is on her job radar. Many Indian experts and policy-makers have urged youngsters not to lose hope and come back.
Ruchika’s friend, Naina (name changed), though, is beyond despair. A post-graduate in social sciences, her parents spent more than Rs 3 crore on her American education. She works in an American civil society group, which relies on funding from Government agencies like USAID. Trump has slashed such budgets. Investments, not aid, and trade, not welfare, is on his agenda. For Naina, it is not just a matter of H-1B. She may not even have a job by the end of the year.
Tens of thousands of Indians, like Naina and Ruchika, believed in the American dream, via American education and visas. A similar number join the IT companies in Bengaluru, Pune, Hyderabad and Delhi to grab H-1B opportunities, or remain on the bench (jargon for employees who are waiting for their visas). Beyond the legal and policy rhetoric and realities of the visa regime, there is a stark human reality of dashed hopes and a crashed future.
The author has worked for leading media houses, authored two books, and is now Executive Director, C Voter Foundation