The GDP growth is estimated to come at the "deceptively high" level of 20 per cent for the April-June 2021 quarter but is far below the same in the pre-Covid times, rating agency Icra said on Wednesday.
Icra said the low base of the last year, when the GDP had contracted by close to 24 per cent, "conceals" the impact of the second wave of Covid-19 infections.
Economic activity is boosted by robust government capital expenditure, merchandise exports and demand from the farm sector, it said, estimating the GDP to grow by 20 per cent and the gross value added (GVA) will register a growth of 17 per cent for the June quarter. The GVA is estimated to contract 15 per cent when compared to the preceding March quarter, which shows the impact of the second wave.
"The double-digit expansion expected in YoY terms in Q1FY22 is deceptively high, as it benefits inordinately from last year's contracted base. We forecast GVA and the GDP to have shrunk by around 9 per cent each in Q1FY22, relative to the pre-Covid level of Q1FY20, highlighting the tangible distress being experienced by economic agents in the less formal and contact-intensive sectors," its chief economist Aditi Nayar said.