A recent student protest in Nepal turned violent, and the Gen Z members set fire to historical buildings like the Singha Durbar Palace, which was built more than a century ago, and is the administrative hub of the Government. They chucked out former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, and his cabinet members. Their ire: 73 protesters had earlier died in a police firing. The subsequent regime-change was both heartwarming and heart-wrenching.
Nepal got its first woman prime minister, Sushila Karki. But scores of young people lost their lives in the bargain. In the recent past, across South and Southeast Asia, in India’s neighbouring nations such as Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Maldives and Bangladesh, as well as in maritime neighbours like Thailand and Indonesia, similar protests have erupted, and were largely led by Gen Z. Issues such as corruption, nepotism, inept governments, rising unemployment and inflation brought the students on the streets.
A recent report by UNICEF states that such youth activism exposes the fractures between its aspirations, and the complex challenges facing the world. More importantly, these protests can turn into civil unrest, societal polarisation, violence and human rights violations, while disrupting the local politics, economics, and the provision of public services, and welfare schemes. It shatters the perception that the Gen Z segment is apolitical, and concerned more about its dreams and desires. In such cases, individualism clashes with the State.
As far as India is concerned, each violent and disruptive act closer home raises concerns about a spill-over effect. It endangers the future of India’s carefully-cultivated diplomacy and economic relationship, and impacts ongoing investments, projects, and bilateral links that need to be renewed with a new regime. New Delhi is the first responder in such situations. It wants the neighbours as steady stakeholders that can aid each other in a win-win strategy to boost the region’s growth and development. A stable and peaceful neighbourhood is crucial for an aspiring economic superpower.
Let us first look at the Gen Z mindset. The trigger that angered the Nepalese agitators was the former prime minister’s decision to ban social media platforms. Observers contend that the real reasons for the anger and frustration went deeper. According to Emiline Smith, a lecturer of criminology at Scotland’s Glasgow University, beneath the leaping flames that destroyed several iconic buildings, lie a profound frustration that predates the protests, which are rooted in a political culture that young Nepalis believe has robbed them of a future.
Smith explains that the attempt to silence the youth through the digital ban deepened its determination to be heard. Gen Z may seem disinterested in politics. But when politics impacts their economics, livelihoods and lifestyles, when politicians play with their potential futures, they are unwilling to remain silent. In Nepal, the president dissolved the Parliament, and called for fresh elections. An interim prime minister, Karki, was chosen. Still, an uneasy calm prevails. Experts feel that it will take a long time for normalcy to return.
Now, let us turn our attention to the economic, diplomatic and political consequences of the fear and loathing in the neighbourhood. In an article in The Secretariat, a website on public policy, business and society, Nitin Mahajan wrote that India provides land-locked Nepal transit for third-country trade, and accounts for nearly one-third of its merchandise trade. The former is the sole supplier of petroleum for the latter. Manjeev Singh Puri, a former Indian ambassador to Nepal, adds that New Delhi remains Kathmandu’s most accessible partner, geographically and economically.
According to Puri, the anti-Indian sentiments in Nepal, which are not new but were further stoked by the current events, may help the local politicians to garner votes. But there is another reality: India helps the Nepalese with job opportunities, builds medical facilities, and provides options for higher GDP growth. India’s investments in Nepal are in large-scale infrastructure and development projects.
These include the Motihari-Amlekhgunj petroleum pipeline, Integrated Check Posts, Hulaki/Terai roads project, and Jaynagar-Kurtha railway line. There are scores of hydroelectric projects like Arun III and Upper Karnali. India has implemented several smaller-scale high-impact community development projects in areas such as education, health and cultural heritage. The investments run into millions of dollars. The anti-India feeling can jeopardise them.
But can they? According to a former Indian diplomat, TS Tirumurti, whose official responsibility was to work with neighbours, an ongoing connectivity project may be disrupted, but it is always revived after some time. Once the locals realise the benefits, especially when the plan commences in phases, there is a renewed interest among the policy-makers. Hence, New Delhi need not worry much about them. The problem lies with new projects that are invariably suspended.
However, the student protest that ousted Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh last year, and brought an Islamist-dominated caretaker government, which is headed by Mohammed Yunus, to power, proves that the situation is more complex. Dhaka, which is the largest recipient of New Delhi’s lines of credit worth more than $ 7 billion, indefinitely suspended connectivity projects like railway lines and digital connectivity projects. One is not sure about their future.
In a recent paper, Sushovan Chakraborty and Riya Sinha of the New Delhi-based Centre for Social and Economic Progress, argue that these events indicate that even well-structured initiatives can be compromised when bilateral political trust is eroded. The Islamists are virulently anti-Indian, and may decide to hitch their progress with other neighbouring and Muslim nations.
In contrast, the regime-change in Sri Lanka, from the pro-China Rajapaksa brothers to pro-India one led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayaka, brought in a more cooperative government. The latter is willing to partner India in security, defense, economy, energy, trade and connectivity, which includes maritime and air links. As of 2025, India’s investments exceed $2 billion. Although Beijing continues to be a major partner for Colombo, Dissanayake has struck a balance between the two regional powers. He has assured that he will not allow India’s security to be compromised on the island.
In the Maldives, the situation is topsy turvy. Mohamed Muizzu, a pro-China leader, won the presidential election in 2023 on an anti-India plank. He realised the mistake of alienating India, and reached out for help to prevent a default on national debt. During a visit to Male, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a $565 million credit line. Muizzu said that it would be used to strengthen the security forces, and improve healthcare, housing and education.
India is building Maldives’ largest infrastructure project, Greater Male Connectivity Project, which is a 6.74-km bridge and causeway network with a $100 million grant, and $400 million credit line. “At times, neighbours cut their nose to spite their face. But the anti-India plank cannot be sustained for long,” says Tirumurti.
(The author is a commentator, and has worked in senior editorial positions for leading Indian media houses)