Crude oil futures fall 2% to Rs 9,631 per barrel

Crude oil futures fell by Rs 167 to Rs 9,631 per barrel on Thursday as prospects of renewed negotiations between the US and Iran eased some concerns over geopolitical disruptions, while persistent risks to energy supplies limited the fall.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), crude oil futures for November delivery declined by Rs 167, or 1.70 per cent, to Rs 9,631 per barrel. Similarly, the December contract also went lower by Rs 70, or nearly 1 per cent, to Rs 9,619 per barrel on the commodities bourse.

“MCX crude oil futures are trading under pressure as easing diplomatic tensions between the US and Iran weigh on prices, with Brent slipping toward $114 per barrel from four-year highs,” said Pinky Yadav, Commodity Fundamental Analyst at Choice Broking.

According to reports, US Vice President JD Vance has reached out to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei to explore restarting negotiations between the two countries.

The outreach came as President Donald Trump considers resuming military strikes against Iran after next week’s US midterm elections. The letter, sent at Trump’s direction, focuses on establishing a framework for negotiations rather than presenting a detailed peace proposal.

However, persistent tensions in West Asia, clashes involving Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces, and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to support prices, Yadav said.

“Despite recovering regional energy flows, uncertainty over negotiations and supply disruptions may keep crude oil sentiment cautious,” she added.

In international markets, Brent oil futures for the December delivery fell nearly 1 per cent to USD 114.36 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for the same month contract fell by 1.3 per cent to USD 101.44 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

“The oil market appears to be pricing a meaningful risk of renewed escalation in West Asia after next week’s US mid-term elections.

“That makes prices particularly sensitive to diplomatic and military headlines,” said Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at brokerage firm Kotak NEO.

He said some of the geopolitical premium could unwind if the anticipated escalation does not materialise, although tight physical market conditions could cushion the decline.

Banerjee said softer freight rates from the early-October peak and increased movement of Gulf crude moving through routes bypassing Hormuz were signs of improvement. However, a sustained easing would require these trends to continue, alongside narrower time spreads and lower product premiums.