With the early onset of monsoons in the country, the farmers are looking at a bumper harvest of kharif crops this year. But all is not as well as it seems. The rainy spell is fast turning into a disaster as the total rainfall from June 1-17 has been about 50 per cent above average resulting in floods in various parts of the country.
According to a study “Turn Down the Heat: Climate extremes, regional impacts and the case for resilience,” released by the World Bank, Indians may very well have to get used to extreme summers, increased drought as well as increased flooding as precipitation patterns change dramatically across the sub-continent.
Because of the devastating impact of climate change, the country is already experiencing shifting rainfall patterns, leaving some areas submerged in water as in Uttarakhand now, while others keep suffering due to scanty rainfall. Since almost 60 per cent of India ’s crop area is rain-fed, change in precipitation would adversely impact food production. Already policy makers are finding it tough to handle issues of irrigation, power generation and drinking water which are plaguing the country.
Agricultural experts are critical of the fact that the most of the times the policymakers are guided by political pressure and tend to look at short-term gains in favour of long-term benefits while making policy decisions. The World Bank study also predicts that by 2050, a rise in temperature by 2-2.5 degree Celsius is likely which would hit water availability for food production and 63 million people in India may not be able to meet their daily calorific requirement.
Environmental economists are of the opinion that the poor and the vulnerable are likely to be affected the most due to global warming which will lead to an increase in social conflicts. So, countries like India should think of making infrastructure that is more climate resilient. For example, generally during monsoon, hydro power stations produce maximum electricity. But heavy rains and the flooding in the northern parts of the country have switched off nearly 4,000 MW of hydro power generation. Some of the big power stations like Dhauliganga (280MW) and Tanakpur(120MW) are not functioning because of rain water and silt.
Already urban areas are turning into vast heat islands and the country needs to prepare for more hot months in store ahead. Melting glaciers and loss of snow cover will all pose a significant risk to stable water resource. “The challenge for India ,” experts say, “is to grow in a manner that can be sustained”. This makes a compelling case for re-looking policies to ensure sustainable development which will have a long-lasting impact on economy.