Indian ministers and officials are verbally committed to safeguard the interests of farmers and dairy-workers. Yet, as the country inches towards a trade pact with the US, there is some finality on accepting give-and-take terms, or initiating win-some, lose-some policies. Recent events indicate that New Delhi is fast creating small, but visible and credible, windows of trade concessions for the Americans. Some experts dub them as potential test cases in certain farm products to assess local reactions and criticisms.
For example, media reports indicate that India has agreed to ease restrictions on the import of genetically-modified (GM) maize, or American corn, which is one of the contentious issues. In the past, Washington targeted New Delhi for the latter’s “unwillingness” to import American corn. India, a top producer of corn, is an exporter. However, starting in 2023, it resorted to imports to enable the use of corn in the production of ethanol for fuel blending. Mandatory ethanol blending led to protests within India, which were related to food security. Hence, imports became the logical supply chains.
America’s corn farmers are peeved for different reasons. They are among the largest exporters, but their revenues and profits were hit once China, a large buyer, shifted from American corn due to the ongoing trade war between the two nations. Desperate for new markets, American farmers pressurised their policy-makers, who found India to be an ideal buyer. Thus, the Americans tightened the screws on the Indian trade negotiators. Apart from maize and corn, the former wants India to import other GM crops.
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)-affiliated farmers’ union, Bharat Kisan Sangh (BKS), is against such moves. Recently, it condemned a working paper by the NITI Aayog, the official think tank, on the trade between India and the United States. The conclusions of the paper, ‘Promoting India-US Agricultural Trade in the New American Trade Regime,’ or any hints of imports from the US were unacceptable to the BKS, and other farm entities.
BKS stands against the import of GM crops like soybean seeds, maize (American corn), and other dairy products from the United States. Its general secretary, Mohini Mohn Mishra, told the “people at NITI Aayog, who make such recommendations” to try and test GM crops in India for an extended period and check its results. “The NITI Aayog,” BKS stated in a statement, “should not treat farmers and consumers as guinea pigs.” Under pressure, NITI Aayog withdrew the paper.
Corn is only one of the decisions in the offing. There are others, which have been either taken or are on the anvil. India allowed duty-free cotton imports for a few weeks, and later extended the period till end-2025. It lifted the ban on exports of non-basmati rice. There are media reports that as part of the India-US trade deal, it will allow the imports of American soya-meal and yellow peas. The first two are experiments to gauge criticisms, and finesse arguments for trade in farm products. The third may well be an out-and-out concession.
For example, in the case of cotton imports, the official line is that the move is to help the cotton-starved textile industry, and does not directly harm the interests of the farmers. It is also in the national interest as exports of cotton textiles accounted for around a third of the country’s textile and apparel exports between April 2024 and October 2025. Valued at more than $7 billion, cotton textiles were the second-largest contributor, after readymade garments.
In conversations with the farmers’ unions, officials claimed that 95 per cent of the domestic cotton will be used by the textile industry, despite the imports. Hence, the farmers’ access to markets, or their revenues will not be affected. In fact, add the officials, duty-free imports will indirectly benefit the local growers as global competitiveness forces the mills to pay better prices. However, local prices have been subdued in the recent past, say the farmers.
More importantly, duty-free cotton imports are more lucrative for the industry users because of the national incentives in other nations. According to a statement by the Left-oriented All-India Kisan Sabha (AKS), “It has been estimated that in the US, government subsidies are as high as 12 per cent of the total value of production of cotton while in India, government support to cotton farmers is about 2.37 per cent of the value of production. This massive disparity in levels of state support is at the core of the advantage US cotton farmers have over cotton producers in developing countries.”
Like in the case of cotton, BKS’ leaders have accused Washington of “putting pressure on India to similarly open” the domestic markets “to other farm products from the US.” It urged the farmers to join hands, and protest the ongoing and forthcoming imports. The BKS demanded that the Government should stop cotton imports, and “encourage the sale of crops grown by the Indian farmers at fair prices. If this is not done, India will move from self-reliance to dependence in the cotton sector.” Imports counter Atma-Nirbharta.
In a statement, the union stated, “BKS had conveyed the views of the country's farmers to the Union Government, where the main issues include not allowing American companies in the agriculture sector for GM seeds and its produce, nor in the dairy and fisheries sectors.” The commerce and industry minister, Piyush Goyal, publicly agreed, “I believe talks are progressing in a very cordial atmosphere. Till we take care of the interests of India's farmers, fishermen, MSME sector… (and) of the entire nation, there will be no agreement.”
However, the moves or planned ones on cotton, corn/maize, rice, and yellow peas hint that the Indian policy-makers are willing to relent in some areas, and put their foot down in others. Globally, most experts agree that Indian tariffs are high. A recent policy paper, ‘UK-India trade deal: Conclusion agreement summary,’ by Britain’s Department for Business and Trade, referred to the tariffs as denoted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI).
“However, there have been significant challenges for UK businesses seeking to access this (India’s) growing market. India has the highest average tariffs of any G20 economy, with some products facing duties above 100 per cent. It is ranked as the eighth most restrictive services market by the OECD, and has an uncertain regulatory environment. Risk and cost have historically hindered UK companies looking to move or expand into India,” stated the paper.
In a fact sheet on the ‘US-India Establish Terms of Reference on Bilateral Trade Agreement,’ the Office of the US Trade Representative stated, “India’s average applied tariff is 17 per cent, among the highest of the world’s largest economies, while the US average applied tariff is 3.3 per cent.” It added, “India’s average applied tariff rate on agricultural products is 39 per cent while the US average applied tariff on agricultural products is just 5 per cent.”
(The author has more than three decades of experience across print, TV, and digital media)