Gold jewellery demand in India is likely to decline in the second and third quarters of this fiscal due to hike in import duty, high volatility in prices and inflationary pressure, according to a report.
While demand is likely to contract by 8 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of FY23, the decline is expected to be higher at 15 per cent in the third quarter due to the exceptionally high base in the same period of FY22, Icra said in a report. According to the report, the exceptional third quarter performance in FY22 was due to the post-Covid reopening of the economy and the substantially high demand in the wedding and festive seasons.
Nonetheless, overall industry is expected to grow by a moderate 10 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in FY23 on the back of strong performance in the first quarter of FY23 and steady demand in wedding and festive season in the current fiscal.
The organised jewellery retail industry's revenue is likely to grow at a higher pace of 14 per cent y-o-y in FY23, driven by continued store expansions, the report added.
"In addition, an increase in other discretionary spending on things like travel due to lower restrictions and a likely reduction in the share of jewellery purchases in overall wedding expenditure, which was higher last year due to restrictions around gatherings, are also factors that can affect demand. Rural demand for gold is also likely to be impacted by uncertain monsoons in the current year and higher interest rates on agricultural loans which could dent disposable incomes," Icra Senior Vice President and Group Head Jayanta Roy said.