Although not unexpected, the implosion of the Congress party in the aftermath of its recent electoral rout is happening at a rapid pace. Starting with Chhattisgarh stalwart Ajit Jogi, the Congress’s units in the North-Eastern States have also raised the banner of revolt. While most are inching towards the BJP, Congress rebels in Bengali-speaking Tripura are predictably scurrying for cover in Mamata Banerjee’s TMC. It is clear that most Congress leaders see little future in that party and are determinedly seeking alternatives. In the process, the BJP will be the biggest gainer although in places where regional parties are strong, they too will benefit from this shifting of loyalties.
Conventional political analysts may lament the systematic erosion of the two-party (rather two alliance) model that has given stability to the polity for the last couple of decades. But if one of the poles in a bi-polar polity fails to hold ground, politics may steadily become multi-polar. Strong regional parties like the Samajwadi or Bahujan Samaj may strike up alliances with those outfits which do not have conflicting electoral interest such as DMK, AIADMK and others to eventually forge what in common parlance is described as a Third Front.
The question however is who will lead the Second Front, given the rate at which the Congress is implodingIJ After the loss of Assam, the party rules only in Karnataka among the major States, apart from a few in the hills and motley States in the North-East. It seems that its grip in the North-East too is slipping rapidly and the Congress may not be in a position to retain its status as the principal opposition to the BJP. Thus over the next few years, it is quite possible that a regional party takes the initiative to cobble together an alliance of non-BJP parties, with the Congress as one of the constituents of such an alliance.
If that were to happen India would enter a new stage in its political evolution, with the States progressively calling the shots. The implications of this for national policy formulation may be seriously unpredictable.