The 21st century, instead of being the Asian century, may well be America’s century in Asia, says Obja Borah Hazarika
America in the Asian Century
Author: M Rasgotra (ed)
Publisher: Amaryllis, Rs 495
The classic power transition theory, as propounded by AFK Organski, asserts that once a rising power reaches economic and military parity with the reigning hegemonic power, conflict is inevitable. It goes on to stress that a rising power is inevitably a revisionist power seeking to alter the international system and the reigning hegemonic power attempts to resist such change, rendering it a status quo power. While America in the Asian Century does not allude to Organski’s power transition theory explicitly, one can discern that the leitmotif in the book is that of the tussle for power between the revisionist and the status quo powers — China and the US respectively — in the 21st century.
The authors are favourably disposed towards the opinion that the US, and not China, will influence, guide and maintain peace and stability in Asia in the 21st century. The intensive analysis presented in the book puts into perspective the incomparable capabilities of the US and China. While China remains embroiled in internal problems and external disputes, the internal stability of the US and its superiority in science and technology coupled with its vigorous engagement with Asia, despite several areas of contention, confirm that the US has the power to maintain peace in the region. It will, thus, have a dynamic role in shaping the Asian century.
In a nutshell, America in the Asian Century attempts to weave the story of the US’s engagement in Asia. KV Kesavan in the chapter on the United States in Northeast Asia emphasises that the region continues to be crucial for security and economic interests of the US. He asserts that the US has an overwhelming influence on the internal matters of Japan. Also, it continues to cultivate close ties with Japan and South Korea, given the North Korean nuclear belligerence and Chinese assertiveness in the region.
Uma Purushothaman maintains that the US-China relationship is a mix of cooperation and conflict. However, for her, matters of contention outweigh those of cooperation. While China remains suspicious of America’s strategies to contain its rise, the US is concerned with growing Chinese assertiveness in South China Sea, its military modernisation and its poor Intellectual Property Rights record. Differences exist between China and the US on issues like Tibet, Taiwan, Iran and Syria. Beijing’s growing clout in Africa, Central Asia and latin America add to Washington’s reservations. Areas where both powers can cooperate have been identified as climate change, terrorism and Afghanistan. The US and China have their own versions of exceptionalism, which makes contention inevitable.
K Yhome asserts that the strategy of the US in Southeast Asia is driven by its geostrategic interests and is underwritten by its intention to remain a major power in the region. The US intends to influence the evolving new regional architecture in the context of rising China, growing regional tensions over maritime boundaries and competition in political, economic and strategic influence among regional powers. The US is attempting to enhance its economic and security ties with the ASEAN to achieve its interests in the region.
C Raja Mohan, in the chapter on the US and South Asia, highlights the re-conceptualisation of the region attempted by the Obama Administration. The first was the Af-Pak-India concept, which was met with apprehension in Delhi. The second was the attempt to create a US-China condominium which was affronted by Beijing. Third, Afghanistan was conceptualised as a bridge between South and Central Asia and India as a bridge between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Given the rise of China and India, the US has thought of creating an integrated strategy towards East and South Asian regions.
In the chapter, ‘Is America leaving AfghanistanIJ’, Saeed Naqvi contends that America’s activities in that country, consisting of creating bases and consulates, do not indicate that the US is preparing to exit Afghanistan; instead, it bears characteristics of the US further entrenching its hold within the country. Additionally, a US withdrawal seems unlikely, as Afghanistan is the perfect perch for it to keep a close tab on Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran and Central Asia.
Then, there are articles by Uma Purushothaman, Angira Sen Sarma and Ajish P Joy on America’s relations with the Arab world, Central Asia and Russia respectively. It is apparent that the US has a large presence in Asia. While China grapples with the trappings of a rising power, the US is busy enhancing its ties in the region by re-conceptualising Asia, forging defence and economic ties and by adapting its responses to alter the international system to accommodate a rising China, without having to compromise its interests.
According to Organski, a conflict is inevitable when a revisionist power reaches parity with the reigning hegemon. Any such conflict between the US and China, however, is not at hand. It’s because of two reasons: First, any such parity is many decades away; second, according to America in the Asian Century, the US’s presence in Asia will be a catalyst for stability, not conflict. So the 21st century, instead of being the Asian century, may well turn out to be America’s century in Asia.
The reviewer is Assistant Professor, Dibrugarh University