Dhaka and New Delhi have demonstrated remarkable rapport and coordination on issues of regional importance
Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is on a state visit from April 7-10 to India after a gap of seven years, though in between she has been touch been constantly in touch with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at different forums and through high-level visits. The two had first met on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September 2014, and then during the Saarc summit in Nepal. later in 2015, Prime Minister Modi went to Dhaka where 22 pacts were signed, including those to curb human trafficking and terrorism.
Modi’s visit in 2015 had taken place against the backdrop of the settlement of the 41-year old land boundary and maritime boundary disputes with Bangladesh, thus making it the first country with which India now has no border issues.
Though it is her first ‘state’ visit in seven years, this will be actually Hasina’s second visit to India in the last six months. She had attended the Brics-Bimstec outreach meeting held in Goa last October, during which she also held a one-on-one meeting with the Indian Prime Minister. Though it was a rushed meeting, yet the two leaders managed to touch upon important issues. In between, Hasina also came to New Delhi to attend the funeral of President Pranab Mukherjee’s wife, Suvarna Mukherjee.
The ongoing trip is possibly her last visit to India during her current tenure as Prime Minister, as Bangladesh goes to poll in 2018. It is obvious that she is under tremendous pressure to extract the maximum out of this visit. While Modi and Hasina will have a comprehensive review of the bilateral relations and discuss new avenues of collaboration, Teesta river water and defence pacts will be two major focus areas. The former is crucial for Bangladesh, the latter for India. There will also possibly be an agreement on civil nuclear cooperation, as India has been for the last two years training Bangladeshi scientists in the nuclear sector.
Teesta has been the most emotive and political issue both in India and Bangladesh. In 2011, then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was all set to sign the deal but things got stalled after West Bengal Chief Minister Banerjee demurred at the last minute, saying her Government hadn’t been consulted. later, under the NDA dispensation in 2015, Modi took Banerjee along with him to Dhaka and both sides assured that something would be worked out. But from 2011 till today, six years have passed and not much movement has happened on Teesta water sharing. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on Hasina to get water for Bangladesh, where irrigation channels dry up during the lean season. Rallies, protests, marches and dharnas have intensified in Bangladesh over the last few months demanding the country gets a larger share of the river water. The country’s main Opposition, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has even warned that bilateral ties with India would deteriorate if the latter failed to release “due share of water of all common rivers”. To pacify the protestors, Bangladesh Water Resources Minister Anisul Islam Mahmud, made statements to the extent that if negotiations fail on Teesta, then Dhaka could raise the issue at an international tribunal.
Given the West Bengal Chief Minister’s mood, it is clear that the much-awaited Teesta treaty may not happen soon. However, even though Banerjee will get to interact with ‘didi’ Hasina during the lunch hosted by Modi, it is clear that the Bangladeshi Prime Minister’s visit this time will be without an agreement on water; the other comprehensive package on river water and delta management on 54 rivers too has not been finalised. Besides, Bangladesh’s request for support on the Ganga-Barrage project, is under Indian side’s consideration.
On the other hand, the Comprehensive Defence Framework Agreement is expected to be signed. This too has been creating ripples in Bangladesh. Opposition parties and several groups in Bangladesh have claimed that the deal, if inked, would give India an upper hand compromise Bangladesh’s interest. However, for India, it is of high importance as New Delhi wants a long-term arrangement to remove any possibility of fluctuation in Dhaka’s policy towards India in case of change in regime there.
The other reason could be possibly to balance out Dhaka’s growing warmth towards China. Bangladesh had recently bought two submarines from China and Beijing remains its biggest military hardware supplier. In any case, India would like to strengthen its own defence relations with Bangladesh through joint production, military hardware purchases, and coordinated operations against mutually perceived threats. Besides, India will provide $500 million as soft loan for military purchases from it.
The other area of discussion would be the attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh. Even though the Hasina Government has taken proactive and reassuring steps, India would want more firm action.
Nearly 25 agreements are lined up to be signed, apart from the Memorandum of Understanding on defence. Besides, the new bus services between Dhaka and Kolkata via Khulna is likely to be inaugurated by the two leaders through video-conferencing. And even as she tries to correct the trade imbalance which is highly titled towards India, there is theadditional line of Credit of five billion dollars that will help fund several projects in Bangladesh, in the infrastructure sector. This is in addition to the one billion dollars that the Manmohan Singh regime gave her and the two billion dollasr the Modi Government had committed in 2015. So, in a both literal and a metaphorical sense, Sheikh Hasina will have her hands full as she returns home.