India and Russia have been close for ages, but strains have now developed
India and Russia celebrate the 70th anniversary of their diplomatic relations this year. But as the two old friends-cum-partners get ready to mark the event, questions are being raised about the strength of the relationship in the fast-changing geopolitical environment. Are the ties still 70-year strong or are they showing signs of a seven-decade later driftIJ
The India-Russia relationship has been beyond anybody’s imagination, with security and defence being the major aspects. Russia was the first and only country to lend a nuclear submarine to India, set up India’s nuclear reactors and provide weapons. Besides, Russian companies were among the first to make in India, much before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for Make in India, supporting India in its aspiration for not only being self-reliant in defence but also being a top producer of weapons, missiles, tanks and much more. Russia also provides special training to Indian forces in counter-terrorism and military sharpness in a way no other country does. The Russian Ambassador to India, Alexander M Kadakin, often said Russia is the first strategic partner of India. He was not wrong.
Russia’s foreign policy for years has kept India at a different level. But over the last couple of years, the Pakistan factor has crept in. This has alarmed not only the security and foreign policy community but also the general public that has traditionally lived with a sense of security in the Russian embrace. Russia’s growing bonding with China is another area of concern in India, causing worries that it may influence Moscow’s views on India-related issues. The Russia-China-Pakistan talk on the Taliban was one such incident.
What further triggers worry is that, although in its latest foreign policy vision document, Russia has for the first time mentioned Pakistan in the context of “terror groups aspiring to create their own state and seek to consolidate their influence on a territory stretching from the shores of the Atlantic Ocean to Pakistan”, it has maintained ambiguity and not specified whether it considers Pakistan a victim of terrorism or the cause for it.
The Russian Government has time and again clarified that friendship with Pakistan cannot be at India’s cost. At one point in time, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin had said: “You must understand that we do not deal with your enemies. We don’t deliver any arms to them.... If you see otherwise, you may spit on my face.”
Russian diplomats still maintain this line, even though Russia and Pakistan Armies hold joint military exercises. Also, over-riding Indian concerns on MI-17 and MI-35 attack Russian helicopters to Pakistan, the deal was done. Russia is also delivering MI-171 helicopters to Pakistan in Balochistan, which inevitably will be used for killing the Balochs. The two countries are expanding their economic ties and are also together on issues like going soft on the Taliban, though Russian President Vladimir Putin considers it the bigger threat to his region than the Islamic State. Could the reason be that India rejected the Russian Mi-35 and opted for the US Apache helicopter gunshipsIJ
Russia’s military exercise with Pakistan would generally have not made news had it not taken place around the time India conducted surgical strikes on Pakistan-based terror launch pads in September 2016. Ironically, Russia was the first P-5 country to back India on those strikes and took an anti-Pakistan stand by blaming it and asking it to back off from terror activities against India. India’s strategic community remained dissatisfied. It wanted nothing less than calling off the exercise altogether at that point of time. Re-scheduling it for later would have possibly send out the best message.
Interestingly, during the same time, the Indian Army was holding an anti-terror joint military drill with Russian soldiers in the Primorye Territory, but that went unnoticed.
Pakistan’s agencies have been busy, happily planting Russia-Pakistan bonhomie stories to create insecurity among Indians. look at the series of such material between September and December 2016: ‘Pak-Russia military exercise to be held in Rattu in Azad Kashmir’; ‘Russia held secret meeting with Pak on joining China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’; ‘Russia to sell Su-35 fighter jets to Pak’... and so on.
Russia has been smarter to read this, hence, the sharp rebuttals from Moscow have been prompt. Moscow denied media reports about the military exercise with Pakistan in “Rattu in so-called Azad Kashmir or in any other sensitive or problematic areas like Gilgit and Baltistan”. The term, ‘so called Azad Kashmir’, was a clear indication to Pakistan to not act smart and create a wedge between India and it. It was also an assurance to New Delhi. Moscow dismissed a “secret meeting” story on the China-Pakistan economic Corridor.
Moscow has always backed India strongly against Pakistan and on Kashmir. Be it using Veto Number 100 to back India against a UNSC Resolution on Kashmir in 1962, positioning its Naval fleet in support of India in 1972 or directly blaming Pakistan for terror attacks on Uri in 2016.
A Russian diplomat posted in Delhi vehemently denied articles in the media that suggest the growing China-Russia partnership is a potential threat to South Asian security and India. However, while the two Governments exude confidence of relationship, the fact remains that Russia has had a shift in its foreign policy to accommodate Pakistan on economic considerations. Whether this moves towards a military-oriented relationship is to be seen. Similarly, Moscow is bonding well with Beijing, but whether this impacts relationship with India, is speculative for now.
Whenever questioned about the growing proximity with Pakistan and China, Russian diplomats point to India’s enhanced cooperation with the US. Minister of State for External Affairs MJ Akbar agrees that Moscow’s relationship with India cannot prevent it from forging other ties, but is confident that Russia would not do anything that is “injurious to Indian security and national interest”. He says, “Our relationship with Russia has stood the test of time and we are absolutely confident that it will stand the test of the future”.
Senior foreign diplomats who served both in Russia and India, envy the bonding, saying the Moscow-New Delhi relationship is unparalleled. “It is much deeper than what the world sees and knows. There is deep trust among each other Government, and if, apart from Hindi and English, any third language your military officers understand, it is Russian”, one top foreign diplomat remarked. And in his parting shot, he whispered: “Despite India’s engagements with the US, and Russia’s with China or Pakistan, let us not forget that Russia and India are wedded to each other for years. It is still going strong.”
Russia has for long isolated Pakistan from its foreign policy, but a handshake with Islamabad is now also due to pressure from Central Asian countries to rein in the Taliban. With India and Pakistan set to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Russia’s engagement with Pakistan will only increase despite the latter once being part of anti-Russian alignments, Cento and Seato. Afrasiab Khattak, a retired Senator and an analyst of regional affairs in Pakistan, wrote in The Nation, that “the fresh hobnobbing of Pakistan with Russia indicates that the country is looking for new markets for its militant outfits”. Or, is Russia looking for fresh markets for its arms industry after India opened up to the US and FranceIJ