In a democracy, the aim of the political parties is to capture power through elections. Success in election is dependent on well-designed poll-strategy which includes identification of voters segments, identification of favorable and hostile constituencies, candidate selection plan, campaign strategy, locating the funding needs and so on.
Only a poll-plan is not enough unless it is perfectly implemented with constant feedback inputs. As poll-strategy is important; it has to be built on research of previous polls. Psepholgy is the branch of political science which deals with the study and scientific analysis of elections. Psephological
inputs help in developing effective poll strategies.
Oppositions’ successive electoral defeats in Odisha are owing to poor psephological inputs. It is also strange to notice that the BJD has not been using effective psephological inputs but could win the show due to its superior election combating skills and weak strategy of the opposition parties.
As the election to the posts of Sarapanchs and the Samitee members are held without party symbols in Odisha, the results of these elections are not indicative of the success or failure of the political parties. On the other hand, the parties participate in Zilla
Parishad elections. It is popularly called as “mini-Assembly election”. The outcome of the ZP election is not only an assessment of the strength of each political party in Odisha, but also the foundation of different parties for the forthcoming 2019 Assembly poll.
A psephological analysis of the past three elections of Odisha since 2009, comprising of the 2009 and 2014 Assembly polls and the 2012 ZP polls, shall be an interesting study to identify the trends of the political parties. As the Opposition will only harvest poll benefits where the ruling BJD is weak, therefore the score of BJD in last elections shall be more meaningful than study the score- board of each political party.
The highly favorable ZP districts for BJD are the ones where the party has been securing more than 70 per cent seats in the successive elections since 2019, such as the 2009 Assembly, 2012 ZP and 2014 Assembly Polls. In those districts, BJD shall easily establish its supremacy in ZP bodies, even if micro-dissidents appear in the fray.
These 15 districts are Nayagarh, Ganjam, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Angul,Dhenkanal, Mayurbhanja, Sonepur, Boudh, Keonjhar, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda and Nabarangpur. BJD has co-opted many leaders from BJP, left, Congress, JMM, NCP and even Independent MlAs in these districts, to consolidate its base further. The Opposition has to do very hard work if it wants to break the stone- walling of BJD in these districts. Death of lalatendu Mohaptra , feuds in INC and BJP will hit the performance of the Opposition in these districts.
The hostile districts of BJD are the ones where its performance has dropped to 50 per cent or less in any of the elections since 2009. The highly hostile districts are Jharsuguda, Deogarh and Nuapada where BJD had lost all seats in 2014 Assembly poll. In these districts, the Opposition has a firm grip. Deograrh and Nuapada districts favor BJP in ZP poll while Jharsuguda can swing either to BJP or INC. In the situation of fight between BJP and INC, BJD has an opportunity as third force in Jharsuguda, provided it takes the advantage of the infightings in Congress and harvests the personal equation of its leader, Anuap Sai, with the sitting Congress MlA Naba Das to keep BJP at bay.
What about Gajapati district, where BJD has not been improving above 50 per cent seats in 2009, 2012 and 2014 pollsIJ Unless BJD plugs the gaps during election management, this district is highly favorable for the Opposition. BJD has to do very hard work in these districts if it wants to capture the ZP bodies.
The lesser hostile districts are those where BJD has been declining since 2009 election, reaching below 50 per cent in 2014 election.
These are Koraput and Sundergarh. In Koraput, BJD is likely to give way to INC to form the district body. In Sundergarh, the co-option of Banei opposition camp leader Bhimsen Choudhury can help the BJD to take control of ZP body, though there is challenge from INC.
Kendrapada is an interesting district, where BJD has been declining since 2009 and reached 60 per cent seat occupancy level in 2014 Assembly poll. This is a favorable district for INC, unless BJD uses strong election management tactics or the State level internal feud of INC creeps in to district.
The third category of districts are the ones where BJD showed improvement gradually from 2009 till 2014 poll and these districts can be termed as “growth districts” for BJD. These are Kandhamal, Rayagada, Maklanagiri, Bargarh, Sambalpur, Baleswar, Bolangir and Kalahandi. BJD has to struggle in these districts to stabilise its lead to harvest benefits in 2019 Assembly poll. Except Baleswar, which is a coastal district, these districts comes under the south Odisha region where INC is keeping an eye and the west Odisha region where BJP has kept its focus.
It is a well known fact that the Opposition unity is not possible in Odisha as the BJP and INC belong to two opposite camps due to central politics. Such situation always favors BJD. BJP MlAs are mostly concentrated in west Odisha and that of INC in south Odisha and Sundergarh. One has to see if the Opposition has used this analysis to develop their strategy on the weakness of BJD. Of course, the popularity of the candidate, local issues and poll management efficiency can go a long way in influencing the poll outcome.