The exit polls have confirmed a widely-prevalent perception that the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) will return to power for a record fifth time in a row in 2019 with about 90 seats.
This is despite the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) national le4adership’s oft-repeated assertion that it would achieve a moon of “120+” seats in the 147-member State Assembly. The BJP was further upbeat over a “Modi wave” witnessed in the wake of the Pulwama-Balakot episode.
The BJD has in fact weathered any anti-incumbency condition due to its supremo Naveen Patnaik’s clean image and pro-people welfare policies and programmes. And this is can be called a vote for Patnaik’s pro-incumbency.
Now on a lighter side of the story, question is whether Patnaik would remember his invitation to his swearing-in ceremony as Chief Minister to Prime Minister Narendra Modi which he had offered the latter towards the end of the election campaign as a well-befitting reply to Modi’s pr4ediction at his Kendrapada meeting — “Naveenbabu, your time is up” as the BJP would this time form Government as a “double engine” along with its regime at the Centre.
That the BJD’s Assembly strength will fall from 117 in the 2014 e4lections is not surprising at all in view of the admissible BJP upsurge nationwide following India’s airstrikes on terrorist bases in Balakot in Pakistan.
But the real wonder will be the BJD’s achievement of a clear, comfortable majority in this situation. It shows Naveen Patnaik’s undiminished popularity despite an added last-bid propagation by his adversaries about his “fast-failing health”.
And as for the 21 Lok Sabha seats in the State, the exit polls mostly show the BJD’s tally above that of the BJP, which had hoped to have a number commensurate with “120+” Assembly seats. Indeed, the BJP’s achievement will be far better than in 2014 when its Jual Oram was the sole winner. Admittedly, the Modi factor helped the party but to a smaller extent.
The BJP’s improved performance, as evident from field studies, is due to large numbers of electors’ decision to resort to a split vote —“One for Naveen for Odisha and one for Modi for the Centre”. In fact, Odisha witnessed such a divided vote for the first time.