The BJD camp is jittery after Union Minister Jual Oram spoke about a possible BJD defection with a number of its MPs and MlAs holding talks with the BJP for switching side.
Oram also spread tentacles by his prophesying of a repetition of 1996-97 history of Odisha, when the BJD was formed by a split in the JD and the regional party later allied with the BJP inspired by the leadership of the then PM AB Vajpayee.
Oram’s remark means a possible split in the BJD and the formation of an alliance between the BJP and the non-Naveen group in the current juncture.
This is obviously a hypothesis, though Oram believes in it. Earlier Odisha BJP Prabhari Arun Singh and the Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan have hinted at huge defection from the BJD. Whether defection or split, these statements of BJP leaders point to disarray in the State ruling BJD’s house.
The BJD president and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik reacted first to dismiss the hypothesis of Oram as wishful thinking. later, BJD MP Tathagat Satapathy said that lord Jagannath is the savior of the BJD. Some BJD leaders went into a counter attack mode by saying that a few BJP leaders are talking to the BJD for defection as well. MP Satapthy did not vehemently dismiss the statement of Oram too. Perhaps the split-confusion ended after the statement of the BJD president and CM Patnaik.
It is not uncommon for the leaders of the politically less potential parties like the Odisha Congress or the dissatisfied leaders of the highly politically potential party like the BJD to cherish a wish to join the BJP camp in search of political fortune. But the reverse that is from BJP to BJD, as claimed by the BJD leaders, is theoretically not tenable. This is all about defection which is an individual process. But split is a group- process and is politically more harmful to the mother party. Sometimes, a split unit becomes successful in killing the mother party like the Janata Dal and at other time, the split unit goes to political exile like the Bihar’s Hindustani Awam Morcha of Jitan Ram Manjhi or the Odisha Jan Morcha. The popularity of the split-units can only be tested in an election. Therefore many leaders follow the split route if there is an immediate political fortune and abandon the risk if the split calls for an election test, choosing the much safe defection route.
Taking seriously Oram’s hypothesis of a split of BJD, it has the possibility of occurring in the Parliament only if the BJP promises some immediate gains like the Union Ministry posts to the split-group leaders. But giving power to the split group at Delhi might upset the apple cart of the BJP in Odisha, which has climbed to a new height during the ZP election on its own efforts. BJP will also assess the anti-incumbency associated with the split-BJD leaders and their value in pulling the non-controversial and clean BJD MlAs with them. Thus the BJP will not decide to support a split in BJD before the next lok Sabha poll and put all efforts to go solo. At Assembly level, a push for split is not possible owing to the gigantic number of the ruling BJD and the pending two years term of the Government. The BJP will surely attempt to put up a clean team for 2019 election and not get entangled with the BJD leaders who have controversies..
But why did the talk of BJD leaders’ defection gain momentumIJ It happened when none but the BJD itself added grist to the rumor mill. The first fuelling of the rumor occurred when BJD asked Bishnu Das to give up his RS seat. It was rumored that the BJD is going to put a person in RS who will monitor the activities of the BJD MPs. It is not yet clear if the party vacated the seat to put up a more efficient leader or to satisfy Dr Damador Rout, who is a bête noire of Das. later, the tweet of MP Tathagat Satapathy talking about the possibility of a BJP supported split in the BJD and an early Assembly poll fuelled such speculations. BJD MP Jay Panda’s article in a vernacular daily and the dissent note of Naveen’s loyalist RS MP Narendra Swain, were enough to add strength to the dissidence factor. When BJP was talking about the defection from the BJD camp, people were not serious. But when the BJD MPs talked about the issue, it created massive public confusion.
Dissidence is a part of the life of every political party. The causes are many which vary from ideological difference to ego-clash to personal benefit-exclusion. It affects both the categories of parties such as those which are in long exile from power as well as those who are enjoying power for long. There was turbulence in the BJP when it was out of power at Delhi. Now BJP offers political opportunity to other party leaders, the leaders of civil society and the business leaders. On the other hand, BJD is in power for almost two decades in Odisha and there is bound to be dissidence in the party.
The party’s equidistant theory since 2004 which amounted to non-participation in the Union Government has created dissatisfaction among some MPs who are Union Minister aspirants. There are many MlAs who are becoming restless due to non-availability of a berth in the State ministry. Some BJD leaders are even aspiring for the CM post .It is a challenge for BJD to manage dissidents at MP and MlA levels.
But the most important factor for BJD is to manage its cadre dissidence, the dissatisfaction of the civil society sympathizers and the beneficiaries. As BJD is not a mass base party but a cadre-based one, there is a fear that the dissident young cadres can change to BJP which is posing as a “catch -all party”. The attitude of the State Government towards the people in general needs to be re-examined when a senior Minister harshly rejects the loan-waiver proposal to farmers, closing his eyes to the Madras High Court’s ruling and the UP Government’s pro-farmer decision. Earlier BJD had strong management ability at all the 3 levels such as the Center, the State and the grassroots which has declined now. Even, the poll combating ability has become weak. The connectivity between the Government and various sections of society is a challenge to the BJD now.