Odisha is one of the best breeding grounds of regional parties in India. In the first post-Independence Assembly polls in 1951, the Ganatantra Parishad bagged 31 seats. In the 1967 Assembly elections, the Odisha Jana Congress secured 26 seats. In the 1971 polls, the Utkal Congress received 33 seats. However, the successful State parties could neither capture the Chief Minister’s chair nor sustain themselves for longer.
But, formed in 1997 out of the erstwhile Janata Dal, the Biju Janatal Dal became the first regional party in the State to occupy the CM’s post in its maiden attempt in the 2000 Assembly polls and has repeated its status quo till now.
In the post 2000 era, the new State parties like OGP, SKD, OJM, Samurdha Odisha and Ama Odisha could not perform noticeably in elections. Now, there is a talk of another regional party to become an alternative of BJD. Is it viable in the present political eco-system in OdishaIJ
The first generation, 1997-2009, electoral phase of BJD can be termed as alliance phase where the infant BJD fought numerous elections in collaboration with the then surging national party BJP. In its first Assembly poll in 2000, BJD secured 68 and BJP secured 38 seats while in 2004, BJD bagged 61 and BJP bagged 32 seats forming repeated coalition State Governments. First factor that contributed to the success of BJD was the en masse transfer of Janata Dal vote to BJD as almost all JD leaders joined BJD.
Secondly, BJD’s alliance with BJP, which was on high public rating nationally due to Vajpayee’s leadership, helped in consolidation of non-Congress votes for the alliance. The third success factor was a weak Congress. The fourth success factor for BJD can be attributed to Biju-sympathy vote for his son Naveen. For 2004 electoral success, one key success factor was BJD-BJP’s decision to prematurely dissolve the Assembly and announce assembly poll along with lok Sabha polls. Interestingly, the termination of numerous top BJD leaders from party during this period had no noticeable impact on BJD’s poll performance.
The second generation, 2009 and 2014, assembly polls were different for BJD. By this time the party had become adult. BJD fought these polls without BJP or Congress as ally. It secured 113 seats in 2009 and 117 seats in 2014 polls. On the other hand, Congress dropped to 16 Assembly seats in 2014 polls from its 2009 level of 27 seats. BJP improved its seats to 10 in 2014 from its 2009 tally of 6. But the worrying fact was that 93 BJP candidates and 26 Congress candidates forfeited their poll deposits in 2009 Assembly election. In 2014, there was marginal improvement in BJP, resulting in 77 deposit forfeitures while Congress slipped further down to 40 candidates losing election deposits. Such high level of deposit losses indicated absence of strong constituency leaders of the two giant national parties, Congress and BJP.
BJD’s massive win in 2009 and 2014 can be attributed to a new set of factors which were totally different from previous polls. In these elections, Naveen emerged as an unchallengeable leader in the State, contributing to what is popularly called as “TINA” (there is no alternative) factor. The second factor was BJD’s alertness while constituency delimitation work was in progress which gave favourable results to BJD. Out of the newly created 25 Assembly seats, BJD won 20 in 2009 and 25 in 2014. Similarly, from the changed reserve category of 32 Assembly seats, 26 went to BJD in 2009 and 27 in 2014.It waslike gerrymandering. The third factor of success for BJD was the presence of weak Opposition in the fray with poor poll organization and funds in comparison to BJD’s poll preparedness. The fourth factor of BJD success was the State Government’s welfare schemes. The fifth success factor was BJD’s strategy to co-opt some top leaders of Opposition parties which diminished the confidence of voters on opposition.
The political eco-system is changing in Odisha after the 2014 elections. BJP, which was in the third position in 2014 Assembly poll, is pushing aggressively its presence in the State after it came to power at Center. It appears to have four pronged strategy for the State, consisting of organization network enhancement in the State with priority on west Odisha, party image building, co-opting leaders of other parties like Giridhar Gomango and lunching new development programmes. Central BJP is projecting Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan as State leader to counter TINA factor of Naveen Patnaik as was evident in IOCl, Bargarh or Baleswar functions of BJP. As BJP is in power at the Center, many leaders, State bureaucrats and businessmen are attracted towards it. It is expected that dissidents of BJD and Congress will get more attracted towards BJP in 2019 poll-time.
However, some in-party dissatisfaction is seen in the party relating to power transfer to younger generation. BJP is hoping to come back to power in 2019. Congress, which was in second position in the State in 2014 elections, has given State leadership to young leaders but there is still infighting in the party. Congress hopes to form Government in 2019 due to anti-incumbency of BJD and BJP Governments and fight between BJP and BJD as it gained momentum in recent Cuttack UlB by-election.
As Congress could not make a comeback during UPA, people are not sure of its comeback to State power when it is not in power at Centre, unless a pro-Congress Delhi wave flows in party’s favour in 2019. But from the two national parties, the fence-sitters and the dissidents are more inclined to BJP. On the other hand, the ruling BJD, which was in its peak performance in 2014 election, is suffering from CBI investigations, scam accusations and in-party power fights. BJD will use its past strategies like image building, lunching of new schemes, co-option of Opposition leaders and weakening of Opposition to remain in power in 2019 and shall like to score high marks in forthcoming PRI and UlB polls to gain confidence of people. Some observers believe that in case of fall in image and terrible anti-incumbency,
BJD will form ally with BJP and the ground strength of BJP in 2019 will influence its alliance decision.
In this situation will another regional party emerge IJThe emergence of dissidents in all parties and failure of BJP and Congress to oust BJD in 2009 and 2014 polls, raises the public discussion regarding formation of another State party to fight BJD. But is it viable nowIJ
In the past, second regional party like OGP did not rise as it took birth at a time when BJD was rising. 2014 election was good time for emergence of another regional party in Odisha to have electoral gains in collaboration with the rising BJP-wave. It was a situation like 2000 Vajpayee wave and BJD-BJP alliance. But it did not happen that way. The emergence of too many State parties weakened them to be attractive for BJP or voters. Some think that the regional parties indirectly helped in the enhancement of BJD vote in 2019 by weakening opposition and Independent votes. Now there is a talk that the dissidents of all parties shall be united to form another regional front. They may do it but how voters of Congress and BJD will give votes to a party that is combination of BJD and Congress leaders. There is possibility of two regional parties for Congress dissidents and BJD dissidents to cut grassroots votes. But this is not possible unless BJP backs it. There is constraint of TINA factor and funds.
Another regional party concept might be attractive but appears to be a pipedream.