Naveen Patnaik, pesident of the Biju Janata Dal(BJD), has been serving as the Chief Minister of Odisha ,since 2000. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, are in the opposition in the State since 2009. But neither of them is able to give a matching fight to the ruling BJD. The national level opposition relationship between the BJP and the Congress, keep the opposition divided in the State and helps the BJD win. But gradually, the Congress declined and the BJP began to rise as single opposition.
Hoping to come to power in 2019 general election, the BJP had set an electoral mission of 120+ Assembly seats. But the BJP failed in the mission miserably and got only 23 Assembly seats and 32.49% vote share. However, the party’s performance in the Lok Sabha election was good with 8 Lok Sabha seats and 38.4% vote share. The better performance of the BJP in Lok Sabha and BJD in Assembly poll in Odisha is mainly due to the split- voting behavior of the voters in 2019 poll.
Variance in the percentage of voting in the Assembly and the Lok Sabha spheres is a common trend in Odisha. In 2009 general election, the BJD had bagged 38.8% votes in Assembly and 37.23% votes in Lok Sabha poll. The BJP had bagged 15.05% votes in Assembly and 16.89% votes in Lok Sabha spheres. Similarly, the Congress had bagged 29.10% votes in Assembly and 32.7% votes in Lok Sabha section. In 2014 general election, the BJD got 43.35% vote in Assembly and 44.10% in Lok Sabha. The BJP had secured 17.99 % in Assembly and 21.5% votes in Lok Sabha poll. The Congress had bagged 25.71% in Assembly and 26% votes in Lok Sabha Poll.
In 2019 election, the BJD got 44.71% vote share in Assembly and 42.8% vote share in Lok Sabha domains. The BJP had bagged 32.49% votes in Assembly and 38.4% votes in Parliament poll . Similarly, the Congress had bagged 16.12% votes in Assembly and 13.4 % votes in Lok Sabha.
One factor which is also responsible for the variance in the percentage of voting in the Assembly and the Lok Sabha spheres is the vote share of the Independents and small parties. The Independents and others took away 12.95% votes in 2014 Assembly poll as against 8.35 % in Lok Sabha poll. Similarly, in 2019 poll, the vote share of the Independents and others was 6.68% in Assembly Poll as against 5.4% in Lok Sabha poll. The less the Independents and others bag votes, the more the major political parties gain.
Split- voting occurs when people vote for one party for the Center and another party for the State. In 2009, split- voting was seen for the first time in Odisha . People gave vote to the Congress in Lok Sabha poll while casting their vote for the the BJD and its alliance for the State Assembly. The Congress bagged 6 Lok Sabha seats, the BJD and its allies got 15, leaving the BJP with no seat. But in the Assembly poll, the BJD could bag 103 seats alone, leaving the Congress with 27 and the BJP with 6 seats. In Baleswar Lok Sabha Constituency, Congress leader, Srikanta Jena won the poll while five Assembly seats under the Lok Sabha constituency went to the BJD and only one Assembly seat went to the Congress. Apart from split -voting, the weakness of the BJP and the better candidature of the Congress helped the Congress to perform better. The same situation was repeated in 2019 general election and helped the BJP in Lok Sabha poll while giving the BJD the mandate for the Assembly.
The main cause of split-voting is the Central political wave during elections. Central wave used to influence Odisha election in the past. But the situation has changed since 2004 general election. In spite of anti-BJP wave from the Center, the BJP-BJD alliance won the State Assembly poll. In 2009, 2014 and 2019 general elections, the central wave was checked by the BJD to influence the Assembly poll. There are two reasons for this. The first reason is the presence of a regional party and the second reason is the conduct of simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha election since 2004. In fact, split- votings are seen in those States where the regional parties are in State power.
In the prestigious Bhubaneswar Lok Sabha Constituency, the BJP won the Lok Sabha seat for the first time in the electoral history of the State. BJP candidate, Aparajta Sarangi, won the seat while none of the Assembly seats under the Lok Sabha Constituency could go to the BJP. The BJD won in six Assembly Constituencies and the Congress won in one. This was a situation of split-voting. It was not due to the Central- BJP or Modi- wave alone, but due to two additional contributing factors such as the personality factor of the candidate and the faulty left-electoral-alliance strategy of the Congress.
Shall the split- voting be repeated in 2024 election in Odisha? The BJD is not complacent and is working continuously to perform better in both Lok Sabha and Assembly segments. The BJP is planning to bag 14 Lok Sabha seats where it had performed very well in 2019 but is yet silent on its Assembly target. As the popularity of Chief Minister, Naveen Patnaik, is increasing and the opposition Congress is weak at the Center and the State, the split- voting is expected to be repeated in 2024 poll where voters are likely to vote for the BJD for Assembly and BJP for Lok Sabha , unless the union politics changes drastically . However, like the last time, the candidate and the Congress factor shall also influence the 2024 poll outcome of BJP. It remains to be seen if the Congress improves in the State and the BJP settles its Chief Ministerial candidate issue.
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