Elections are the opportunities for the Opposition parties to occupy power in democracies. However, we witness both pro-incumbency and anti-incumbency phenomena nowadays.
leader like Angela Merkel has been continuing as Chancellor of Germany since 2005. In India, UPA continued in power for two consecutive terms. Ruling parties in some States like Odisha, Gujarat, MP and Chhattisgarh have been winning State polls consecutively.
Consecutive repetition of power in the Indian States is not owing to the ideology factor of the ruling parties as different ideological parties such as the left, the BJP, the Congress and the regional parties have claimed it.
The repetitive electoral feat simply happens when a political party caters to the needs of most of the strategic stakeholder sections of the voters such as various caste groups, the religious groups, the women, the poor, the youths, the slum dwellers, the business groups, the regional groups, the protest groups, the Government employees and so on. In Odisha, the Naveen Patnaik Government has been repeatedly winning polls because of its ability to carry successfully various sections of the voters through two powerful instruments of schemes and political representation.
What will happen in 2019 Assembly pollsIJ Shall the BJD of Patnaik repeat its 5th consecutive victoryIJ It depends on its ability to keep its stakeholders satisfied and the ability of the Opposition to take away some of its stakeholders.
Some of its stakeholders were dissatisfied and moved to the BJP camp during the last Panchayat poll of 2017. The BJD has been rectifying its mistakes. It has increased the salary of the Government servants, launched housing schemes and group-loan schemes for the slum dwellers and the sharecroppers, initiated steps for refund of money to the small chit –fund victims and so on.
It might launch more welfare schemes as well. It is not that the Patnaik Government has no political and governance failures. But the Opposition is not able build a suitable political strategy to gain from the lapses.
The ideological divide between the two key opposition parties of the State such as the BJP and the Congress has been helping the BJD. The weakness of the Congress had helped the BJP to become the main opposition party in the State during the last Panchayt poll but the Congress has put its senior leader Niranjan Patnaik on the forefront to check its marginalisation.
The presence of the two strong opposition parties shall help the BJD again in 2019 poll, as they shall divide the anti-incumbency votes. Till now, neither the BJP nor the Congress has been able to build a pan-Odisha political opposition organisation to counter the omnipresent BJD.
Without the constituency –level strong presence in the coastal areas, the BJP and the Congress cannot bag 74 seats ( half of the Assembly seats) individually in 2019 poll. Collectively, they cannot cross the 74 seats as BJD has more than 60 fortified –constituencies. This situation can help the BJD to form the next State Government singularly.
Due to the national politics needs, the Central leaders of the BJP and the Congress go slow with the BJD. Though the BJP has put a new party-background Governor in Odisha, his gubernatorial activism shall be limited by the pro-BJD attitude of the Central-BJP. The growing importance of the regional parties for the 2019 Union Government politics shall further strengthen Patnaik’s position and image.
Besides, the Mahanadi -campaign is yielding an advantage to the BJD vis-a -vis the BJP.
The second winnability factor of a party is its fitness before a poll. In earlier years, the BJD has remained united before the polls and the dissident or the dropped leaders could do no harm to the party. Will the same situation prevail in 2019 when Baijayant Panda has leftIJ Split in the BJD or the formation of a new party by the BJD dissidents is a remote possibility, even if promoted by a national party, as party- formation is not an all weather activity but a climate -centric one. Today there is no space for a new party in Odisha as the Congress is consolidating and the BJP is rising. Numerous examples of infant mortality of the new parties can be found in India.
Now, the third question arises, relating to the defection of the ticket-denied MlAs to the opposite camps. If a sitting MlA has been denied ticket due to his unpopularity then how shall other parties use him to win the seatIJ At best he can be used by the opposition to contest poll as a vote- cutter of the BJD to help the BJP or the Congress.
But what will be the size of the vote- cutting when he is unpopularIJ Besides, why a MlA will not wait for post-poll rehabilitation but commit political suicideIJ
The fourth level of poll action relates to candidate selection. The BJD is likely to use its old 4-R strategy (replace, repeat, rehabilitate through children and other posts or promises, relocate vertically and horizontally) for candidate selection. It might add the fifth “R” strategy which is “re-integrate”. Patnaik has already sounded about it.
He could bring back a few dropped but poll-experienced leaders like Prafulla Ghadei , Panchanan Kunungo and so on, to help the BJD in complex poll management. Re-integration of the key dissidents at the constituency levels is advisable.
The BJD might also induct MlAs or ZP members or Chairmen from the opposite camp for image building and winning advantage.
This time the newly inducted leaders like Soumya Ranjan Patnaik , Achyuta Samanta, Arup Patnaik can be useful in the BJD’s poll campaigns in addition to its own popular faces like Prafulla Samal, Prasanna Acharya and Prashant Nanda.
The movement of Bijay Mohapatra, Dilip Ray and Baijyanta Panda could of local importance, pro or anti-BJD. The JMM and the left shall pose no harm to the BJD.