As I write this article, serpentine queues outside the polling booths in western Odisha for the Urban local Body (UlB) elections are bathed in the early afternoon sun on Friday. At the time of your reading the article on Saturday, the counting for the polls would have already started trickling in, giving the first indications whether western Odisha still continues to be the bastion of the Congress and the BJP compared to the BJD or has the fort cracked.
Many speculations would arise after the UlB election results. Has the BJD been able to storm through the formidable western Odisha stronghold of the Congress and the BJPIJ Has the Congress been able to retain its grip in the region and redeem itself for the 2014 general electionsIJ Has the BJP asserted its survival and established its presence yet again or is its stock value dwindlingIJ Has the western Odisha High Court Bench issue broad-based for the people in west Odisha, and if yes, then who has been the ultimate beneficiaryIJ
These twenty UlBs in nine districts are seen as vital to the interests of the Congress, which has four of its six MPs from this region. Further, with the BJD wresting 44 of the 66 UlBs in the September polls this year, the western Odisha UlB elections have become important not only for sustainability but also for consolidation and expansion of the party vote-bank before 2014. led by its president Jayadev Jena, the Congress strongly fought this entire campaign, and though many senior leaders were conspicuous by their absence the relevant leaders like Bhupinder Singh, Bhakta Charan Das, Sarat Pattanaik, Jagannath Patnaik, Naba Das and party MlAs kept the party flag flying throughout the campaign. In fact, the Congress UlB election campaign looked more focused and well-directed in western Odisha than it had seemed in coastal and southern Odisha earlier.
The BJD, on the other hand, gave a massive push to its campaign in this region. An unprecedented presence of BJD leaders cutting across regions coupled by senior Ministers, office-bearers and Chief Minister and party supremo Naveen Patnaik himself gave an air of Assembly election-like flavour to the campaigning. The presence of cine personalities like Anubhav Mohanty, Pappu Pom Pom and Siddhant Mohapatra, who is also the MP from Brahmapur, further added to the frenzy. Naveen Patnaik’s whirlwind campaign also was a first in this election. It was as if he was undertaking a dry run before the lok Sabha and Assembly polls of 2014.
The BJD has much to gain and much to lose in this UlB election. If it is able to double its tally from the last election in this region then it would have gained a psychological high ground after being consistently branded as a coastal Odisha party. Notwithstanding the Zilla Parishad elections which it swept in this region earlier, the UlB polls are usually reflective of the urbane voters’ preferences and choices and make the difference between a simple majority and a two-thirds majority in the Assembly. A below-par performance could also be used by the Opposition as a referendum against Naveen Patnaik’s performance.
The BJP has a massive axe to grind. In 2008, it was a partner of the BJD. Now on opposite sides of the fence, this is the best opportunity for the saffron party to come good on its own turf. The BJP finds the urban voter and middle-class not only in Odisha but across India as being receptive to Narendra Modi. The saffron frenzy being whipped about for Modi-mania across the country would, to some extent, be put to test in this election. Has Modi’s rhetoric found its way into the hearts and minds of the western Odisha voter or has it missed the busIJ If the BJP fails to hold on to at least the tally it had in 2008, it could well mark the decline of the party which had once handheld Naveen Patnaik to power in 2000. Present BJP State president KV Singh Deo and two former presidents Suresh Pujari and Jual Oram belong to this region. If, despite its hectic campaigning, the BJP fails to make a mark, it would push the party into the fold of Pyarimohan Mohapatra’s Odisha Jan Morcha. A strong performance would strengthen the hand of KV Singh Deo to resist the overtures of Mohapatra while a weak performance would not only strengthen the voices of Singh Deo’s critics within the party but also shatter the morale of the rank and file of the party before the upcoming general elections.
Close to about 5 lakh voters are wielding supremacy to choose the 301 councillors for these 20 UlBs. The nine municipalities and eleven NACs are not only statistics but also harbingers of political fortunes for all the three major contesting parties and their leaders. While Sundargarh, Biramitrapur and Rajgangpur would test the fortunes of BJD MPs Dilip Tirkey and Mangala Kisan and Congress MP Hemanand Biswal and former BJP MP Jual Oram, Bargarh, the Barpali and Padmapur UlBS would test the cumulative strength of Congress MP Sanjay Bhoi and Congress MlAs Sadhu Nepak and Subal Sahu. Brajarajnagar and Jharsuguda would show the way for either Congress MlA Naba Das or former Speaker and BJD leader Kishore Mohanty. Deogarh and Kuchinda would highlight whether the BJP’s Suresh Pujari or the BJD’s Rohit Pujari or Congress MP Amarnath Pradhan is ahead in the race for electoral fortune.
For Finance Minister Prasanna Acharya, both the districts of Sambalpur and Bargarh would be closely watched by his critics, especially in the backdrop of the State Election Commission’s show-cause notice to him for alleged violation of poll code. Bhawanipatna, Kesinga and Junagarh are most crucial for Congress MlA and leader of Opposition in the Assembly Bhupinder Singh and Congress MlA Gobardhan Das while Sonepur, Binka and Tarava would be equally important for BJD MP Kalikesh Singh Deo and Minister Niranjan Pujari. While Patnagarh would be a prestige issue for KV Singh Deo, Kantabanji would be crucial for Congress MlA Santosh Singh Saluja. Khariar and Khariar Road would be vital to the interests of BJD MlA Rajendra Dholakia and BJP MlA Hitesh Kumar Bagartti.
The UlB elections for only 20 bodies had never seen so much action, and within such a short duration. This is perhaps reflective of the times as the elections of 2014 draw nearer.
This is being billed as the semifinal before the finals of 2014. The victor in this election would not necessarily be the victor of 2014; neither would a loss wipe out the fight for the fallen. But the positive wind generated by a strong performance could help the concerned party, whether the Congress, the BJD or the BJP, to buck the negatives and charge its party cavalry before launching the electoral battle of 2014. This election’s results would determine which party would go into the final match with a morale advantage, with its chin up and shoulders raised and which party would start the match looking uncertain, at least in this rice bowl of Odisha. let the results of the semifinal battle pour in!
(Dr Sasmit Patra is a keen observer of the Odisha politics. He can be reached at sasmitpatra@gmail.com)