Ralf Stegner, a Member of Parliament for Germany’s ruling Social Democrats, revealed in January this year that the Minsk-Normandy process agreed to by France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine was the only framework for ending a civil war in Ukraine, which did not happen. Consequently, that provoked Russia to wage a full-blown war in the disturbed country a month ago. As most American politicians and corporate media have remained permanent enemy of Russia since ages, they have lapped up the one-sided narrative that paints Russia as the erring aggressor in Ukraine. Hence, support by way of sending more and more weapons to the Ukrainian Government forces has been extended without a second thought. Unfortunately, even after decades of US military disasters due to similar one-sided narratives, Americans haven’t learned much lesson till date.Several critical events that have been airbrushed out of the West’s political narrative on purpose, the big one being the violation of agreements Western leaders made at the end of the Cold War not to expand NATO into Eastern Europe; and the February 2014 US-backed coup in Ukraine only to offend Russia and show the country in hateful light.
Russia’s 2014 reintegration of Crimea and the decision by ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine to secede from Ukraine asthe Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics has been painted just too horribly by the America-backed Western mainstream media.The subsequent Russian actions were not unprovoked. They were natural responses to the US-backed coup, in which an armed mob led by the neo-Nazi Right Sector militia stormed the Ukrainian parliament, forcing the democratically-elected President Yanukovich and members of his party to flee for their lives. America backed comedy actorZelensky to be elected President in 2019 by defeating the incumbent Petro Poroshenko by casting himself as an antiestablishment outsider hell-bent on cleaning up corruption and securing better relations with Moscow. His pitch was based on his TV show character, wherein he portrayed an ordinary man being thrown into the Presidency to clean up the entirecountry. Even his political party was named after the show, ‘Servant of the People’. Zelensky’s Ukraine has still not implemented the Constitutional changes called for in the Minsk agreements. He has also not turned down the unconditional military support from the United States and the NATO which has encouraged Ukraine’s leaders to ignorethe Minsk-Normandy process. Further, the Zelensky team has reasserted sovereignty over all of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea which hurt Russia. Rest is history as one gets to witness.
Lately, Jo Biden had also revealed that not all NATO countries are on the same page as the US and that there are differences on how one should act against Russia and under what circumstances.In 2014, Crimea chose to merge with Russia after a formal referendum was conducted and this had never gone well with the US. At least 1,00,000 Russian soldiers had trooped in Crimea to smoothen the wilful secession to Russia, the big brother.
Russia has a set of demands to not invade Ukraine, the primary one: Ukraine or any other former Soviet country in Eastern Europe will not join NATO. More so, NATO has to ban any former Soviet country trying to join the organisation. By now, 14 former Soviet nations out of 16 are part of NATO already. So, the Russian demand would mean their exit from the fold. Russia also was insistent on NATO going back to its pre-1997 border. Further, agreeing to the demands would also mean that NATO allies would have to cease their military activity in Eastern Europe, including pulling out combat units from Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and not deploying missiles in any such countries ever again. Most significantly, the NATO countries would not be able to supply the US with nuclear weapons.
The fears of the former Soviet nations joining NATO would mean US influence on Russia’s doorsteps. Incidentally, Vladimir Putin has made it very clear from day one that he is enormously unhappy with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the current status quo. He has screamed at all times that Ukrainians and Russians are just ‘one people’.
Now as the war is on, the West has been overtly and covertly providing military support to Ukraine. The US has promised a $200-million military aid while it has already Okayed weapons transfers from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The UK is also sending military aid to Ukraine. But Germany, the real conscience keeper in the group, is still standing its ground denying arms to Ukraine.
All the same, India and Russia continue to need one another. Moscow also shares with New Delhi certain historical discomforts over a rising China. Russia is still India’s proven friend. Putin has clarified to Indian news agency PTI that India, like any sovereign nation, has the right to choose its foreign policy and, thus, become a member of the QUAD that China keeps opposing vehemently. QUAD is an informal group for Quadrilateral security Dialogue comprisingthe USA, India, Australia and Japan.
India is the second largest market for the Russian Defence industry. In 2017, approximately 68% of the Indian military's hardware import came from Russia, making Russia the chief supplier of Defence equipment. India has an embassy in Moscow and two consulates-general in Saint Petersburg and Vladivostok.Making it clear that it has no intention to hurt Russia ties, New Delhi neither condemned Russian action nor joined in the UN resolutions against Russia.
Some statesmen say India’s stance does not go ethically with its democratic character and the avowed commitment to the rules-based international order. But circumstances do provoke India to adopt a pragmatic path to save situations in the interest of the nation as well as leave the right footprint for posterity to be righteous.
The India-US dynamics during the Cold War era still looms large in memory. There is still a strong perception that Washington was unfailingly reluctant to empathise with India despite the latter being a colossal democracy. The US alliance with Pakistan during the 1971 war against India evokes compelling discontent even today; and rightly so. Fifty years is a small period to obliterate painful events from human minds. Even after the fall of Soviet Union, Washington did precious little to shake off its Cold War-era stance against New Delhi even after strategic proximity between the two nations grew exponentially somehow. Washington has not responded well even once to India’s appeals to isolate Pakistan internationally for supporting cross-border terrorism. Instead, US military assistance to Islamabad has not diminished significantly to reassure India that the US is an ally for real.
It is evident by now that Putin will pay a huge price for a prolonged war, but fall of Ukraine is inevitable. The conscientious world, all the same, has realised already that Putin’s Russia is more righteous than the NATO countries except Germany, which has stuck to agreed-upon principles.